The global smartphone market is showing signs of life again, with shipment now estimated to increase 1 percent in 2025, according to new data from the research firm IDC. This may look like a slight increase, but it is upgraded from the pre -estimated estimate of the IDC’s 0.6 percent increase, and a positive turn after the May Downgrade when the firm reduced its projection by 2.6 percent. Criminal back? Tariff, inflation and dull consumer expenses.

This latest amendment reflects a healthy wave of replacement purchase from consumers around the world as well as strong-to-intake demand for Apple’s iPhones. Together, these factors are expected to pursue 2026 and beyond, suggesting that the smartphone industry is proving to be more flexible than many in the time of global economic uncertainty.

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IDC report, made on the data of quarterly mobile phone trackers worldwide, is expected to reach 1.24 billion units in the smartphone shipment 2025. The center of that growth is apple, it is estimated to increase by 3.9 percent year-on-year with iOS devices. In other words, iPhones do a lot of heavy lifting.

Although inflation and unstable consumer belief have reduced demands in some areas, people are still upgrading their phones, often pushed by better deals, business-in programs and interest-free financing. The IDC estimates that the market will maintain a mixed annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5 percent between 2024 and 2029, in which the replacement cycle is playing an important role.

Another factor that gives the industry some breathing space is a continuity of tariff discounts in the US, which has molded the smartphone from additional costs. Nevertheless, tariff uncertain gender in the background.

Regional winners and losers

The demand for smartphones is playing differently worldwide. Nabila Popal of IDC, Senior Research Director, said that the increase in some markets would offset the decline in others.

He said, “The growth of smartphones in the US will face 3.6 percent, 6.5 percent in the Middle East and Africa, and in 2025, China will face a 1 percent decline in Asia Pacific China, except China at 0.8 percent.”

China is a weak place in this view. The IDC had originally expected to gain a 3 percent lead from the country, but now it has been revised with a decline of 1 percent. Government subsidies, including weak consumer belief and the disappearance of the government subsidy and the disappearance are being blamed for the recession. Popal insisted that handset manufacturers need to focus on identifying the “capacity pocket” in markets that are still performing well.

Honor

Perhaps the most interesting innings highlighted by IDC is that the producers are no longer pursuing volumes. Instead, they are doubled on price construction. This means that slimmer, smooth design, cameras with more professional-grade features, foldable formats, and top, are baked directly into the generative AI tools.

According to the report, even though the shipment is expected to increase by only 1 percent in 2025, the price of the market will increase rapidly: average sales prices have increased by 5 percent, while the total revenue will increase by 6 percent. Appeal of aggressive marketing campaign, financing schemes, and premium features is helping consumers to justify spending more on new equipment.

Aye is a big bet

IDC’s Anthony Scarsla said that generic AI is becoming a central theme for smartphone manufacturers because they look for ways to stand out.

He said, “The generative AI is emerging as a central strategy for vendors, which aims to separate its products by embedding advanced AI abilities,” he said.

Scarsela hopes that the global shipments of the Geni smartphone represent about 30 percent of the entire market to cross 370 million units in 2025. And this is only the beginning: by 2029, the IDC estimates that AI-powered smartphones can make more than 70 percent shipments, as the technology runs beyond flagship and in the middle-grain handset.

Foldables are growing, but still niche

Foldables are foldables to attract a lot of attention in another category. Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President of Client Devices, said Francisco Jeronimo said that the recent Samsung, Google, Motorola, Honor and Huawei have been launched how soon the format is developing.

“The latest foldable release displays significant progress in both hardware and software, reflects a category that is growing quickly and breaking the previous obstacles for widespread acceptance,” he said.

IDC hopes that 2025 will increase by 6 percent year-on-year in 2025, increased by 4 percent in 2024. The speed will not slow down, with another 6 percent increase for 2026 and a sharp 11 percent increase in 2027.

Two issues- stability and strength- have held foldables back in the past. But as more models enter the market with strong screens and low -price tags, consumer demand is expected to climb continuously. Nevertheless, the IDC stated that foldables would be a niche product, which would also represent less than 3 percent of the global shipment by 2029.