Exactly a year ago, China warmly welcomed Bashar al-Assad and his wife during their six-day visit to the country, giving the former Syrian leader a rare break from years of international isolation since the start of the civil war in 2011. Was offered. ,
As the couple attended the Asian Games, President Xi Jinping vowed to “oppose external interference” and support Assad in rebuilding Syria, while his wife Asma was welcomed in Chinese media.
But analysts say the sudden end to the rule of an authoritarian leader explicitly supported by Xi just last year has dealt a blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions in the Middle East and exposed the limits of its strategy in the region.
A coalition of rebels captured the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday in a massive assault that ousted Assad’s regime and ended his family’s 50-year dynasty.
“China’s ability to shape political outcomes in the region has been greatly exaggerated,” said Jonathan Fulton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Fulton said that while the fall of the Assad regime saw the influence of his main supporters, Iran and Russia, decline in the Arab world, it was also a blow to China’s global ambitions.
“Everything (China) does internationally is dependent on the support of those countries, and their inability to support their largest partner in the Middle East speaks volumes about their ability to do much beyond the region.” Says something.”
dealing with hotspot
After China brokered a deal between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese media praised Beijing’s rising profile in a neighborhood long dominated by Washington.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi said the country would play a constructive role in dealing with global “hotspot issues”.
China also brokered a ceasefire between Fatah, Hamas and other rival Palestinian groups earlier this year and has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza.
But despite bringing Middle Eastern leaders to Beijing and a round of “shuttle diplomacy” by its Middle East envoy Zhai Jun, the Palestinians have not formed a unity government in months and fighting continues in Gaza.
“Assad’s sudden fall is not a scenario Beijing wants to see,” said Fan Hongda, a Middle East scholar at Shanghai International Studies University. “China prefers a more stable and independent Middle East, as chaos or a pro-American tilt in the region does not suit China’s interests.”
China’s Foreign Ministry’s response to Assad’s fall has been slow, focusing on the safety of Chinese citizens and calling for a “political solution” to restore stability in Syria as soon as possible.
Mao Ning, a foreign ministry spokesman, on Monday appeared to leave an opening for engagement with the future government: “China’s friendly relations with Syria are for all Syrians,” he said.
Chinese experts and diplomats say Beijing will now take its time before recognizing the new government in Damascus.
He says it can use its expertise and financial strength to support reconstruction, but its commitments are likely to be limited as China has sought to reduce financial exposures abroad in recent years.
Syria is due to join China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, but there have been no significant investments by Chinese companies since then, partly due to sanctions.
Bill Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen and an expert on China-Middle East relations, said, “China is not really fundamentally able to replace the West, neither as an economic partner, nor as a diplomatic or military force in the region. Is.”
“China in 2024 has much less money than China in 2013-2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa said. “There is a clear reassessment underway towards safer investments and reducing China risks overall,” he said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
