Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ political leader will have far-reaching consequences for any prospect of peace in the Middle East
Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh killed In Tehran, where he attended the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian President Mesoud Pezeshkian, it is a significant moment, signaling an intensification of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian war.
While Israel has always pursued a policy of attacking Hamas leaders anywhere in the world, there has been an agreement between Israel and Arab states that they will not be targeted outside Palestine.
Haniyeh’s killing is the first targeted killing since the assassination of Hamas leader Mohammed al-Mabhouh in Dubai in 2010.
Haniyeh was seen as a pragmatist capable of uniting competing Hamas factions and the organization’s closest relative politician, but he posed a greater threat to Israel than anyone else within Hamas.
His elimination is one of the greatest achievements of Israeli intelligence and embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In fact, it could be a lifeline for Netanyahu, who is deeply unpopular in Israel because of his handling of the conflict.
dangerous growth
But it is also a dangerous escalation and could have serious implications for the region and its fragile security system, as Iran poses a threat to the region. Revenge For the murder of Haniya.
Israel has broken many of the established rules on which fragile regional security has long depended.
Israel’s regional security doctrine rested on two principles.
First, because the Arab public has long been deeply unhappy with its governments, the plight of the Palestinian people remains the greatest source of anger and frustration.
Without a brutally repressive system, Arab public opinion would have turned violent, as it did during the failed Arab uprisings in 2010.
The ruling class often distributes subsidies and freebies and relies on more radical policies. Salafi Islamism (Pure or authentic Islam is found in the living example of the early, righteous generations of Muslims, known as Islam.) Salaf) To calm the public.
Arab opinion has changed since the Gaza war. Dangerously anti-American and anti-WesternAnd Israel’s expanding battlefield beyond Gaza is pushing Arab regimes deeper into crisis.
Maintaining control over the boiling public opinion is one of the most important aspects that Israel had to help the Gulf countries achieve.
But with this Gaza war – which has killed more than 39,000 Gazans, including 14,000 children – Israel has caused serious damage to the ability of Gulf and Arab states to control their populations.
Second, the fragile security situation in the region is based on secret bilateral and regional agreements between Israel, the United States, and the Gulf countries to establish a shared security system.
Its aim is to keep radical Islam and its allies, Iran and its supporters, away from gaining influence in the region at any cost.
The current Gaza war and the assassination of Haniyeh will further discredit pro-Western Arabs and their initiatives on Palestine, including the Abraham Accords.
Over the past few decades, Gulf countries have separated Gulf security from broader Arab security.
Iran is a big threat
For Arab security, resolving the Palestinian crisis remains the most important issue, while for Gulf security, Iran remains a major threat More dangerous than the Israeli occupation.
As a result, any Gulf-led initiative for Palestine has been primarily motivated by an attempt to circumvent Iran and its allies.
Iran and the Gulf countries have become increasingly closer in the past few years. China-mediated talks for regional security.
In this Gaza crisis, the US and Israel may lose some Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, in their plans to revive the Abraham Accords.
Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries have become increasingly frustrated at being sidelined by Gulf states and having to sacrifice Arab security for Gulf security.
Finally, Haniyeh’s assassination has weakened and divided the Palestinian Authority, which helps everyone except the Palestinians and their prospects of achieving statehood. Today’s Palestinian Authority has lost much of its appeal and influence as it used to have under the charismatic leadership of Yasser Arafat.
Hamas has filled this void. unpopular and corrupt Israel, under Mahmoud Abbas, has unilaterally changed the rules of Arab and Gulf security by assassinating the top leader of Hamas.
Palestine’s new response to the Gaza crisis may not be entirely under the control of Gulf countries, as the Americans and Israelis want.
Egypt relied heavily on Hamas to maintain the fragile security between Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt felt betrayed and isolated by the Americans and Israelis. The assassination is also a serious blow to Egypt.
interesting thing, Türkiye and Egypt These days there has been more talk about the Gaza crisis and helping each other. Turkish Foreign Minister is in Cairo And also visited the Rafah border to oversee the distribution of Turkish aid.
When Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi visits Ankara next month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may offer him a major opportunity to revive Egypt’s historic role in the Arab world.
Israel and its Western supporters should be concerned about how regional powers realign their interests and strategies for a new regional security with Palestine at the center.
Omair Anas He is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey, and a member of the Centre for India-West Asia Dialogue, a New Delhi-based think tank.
Originally published as creative Commons By 360Information
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