Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal threats at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could overshadow the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Galant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict.
The blast came less than two weeks before Netanyahu was to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing.
While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the Prime Minister has received wide support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has described the court’s decision as anti-Semitic and denies allegations that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
“If Israelis think the world is against them and they rally around their leader, even if he faces a lot of criticism, they’re really angry,” said Jonathan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “Becomes done.”
“So anyone who is hoping that the ICC decision will bring an end to this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite result,” he said.
A senior diplomat said one early result was that Israel might be less likely to reach a quick ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to repatriate hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza. .
Ofir Akunis, Israel’s Consul General in New York, said, “This terrible decision…seriously damages the prospects for a settlement in Lebanon and future negotiations on the hostage issue.”
“There have been terrible losses because organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas… have received support from the ICC and thus their prices are likely to be higher because they have ICC support,” he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there is no indication that either it or Hezbollah sees it as an opportunity to put pressure on Israel, which has carried out attacks on both groups as well as civilian populations over the past year. Has also caused huge damage.
in the dock
The ICC warrants highlight the difference between the way the war is viewed here and how many people abroad view it, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced that the country’s military had minimized civilian casualties. Tried to do.
Michael Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would toughen resolve and give the war cabinet license to attack Gaza and Lebanon even more.
“There is a strong current of Israeli sentiment running deep that says ‘if we are being condemned for what we are doing, we might as well go all out’,” he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received widespread support domestically over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic corruption case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial began in 2020 and is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that Netanyahu was too busy overseeing the war to prepare for his defense. .
He was scheduled to testify last year but the date was postponed due to the war. His critics have accused him of delaying judgment day and prolonging the Gaza conflict to remain in power, which he denies.
Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply after the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which toppled his government and killed nearly 1,200 people.
According to Gaza officials, Israel’s subsequent campaign killed more than 44,000 people and displaced almost the entire population of Gaza at least once, causing a humanitarian catastrophe.
The Prime Minister has rejected advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission to look into what went wrong and Israel’s conduct of the war.
Instead he is seeking to set up an investigation involving only politicians, which critics say will not provide the accountability sought by the ICC.
The popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said that the failure to order an independent investigation has prompted the ICC to take action. “Netanyahu preferred to risk an arrest warrant unless he had to create such a commission,” it wrote on Friday.
threat of arrest
The prime minister finds it difficult to live in the shadow of an ICC warrant in the future, and will join the ranks of just a few leaders who have suffered similar humiliations, including Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks being arrested if he travels to any of the court’s 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he could safely go is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will apply pressure on ICC officials by imposing sanctions.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, has already promised strong action: “You can expect a strong response to the anti-Semitic bias of the ICC and the UN in January,” he wrote on Friday. .
Meanwhile, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals and urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the allegations are not likely to disappear anytime soon, even if they do, which means fellow leaders will be reluctant to engage with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shaini, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
“In a very simple sense, the Israeli state is going to become more isolated going forward,” he told Reuters.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
