Ukrainian ground forces and mechanised troops have crossed the international border and penetrated more than 30 kilometres into Russian territory. This is one of the most significant developments in the ongoing war between the two countries. The Ukrainian forces are estimated to number more than 1,000. These troops have advanced from the Sumy Oblast region of north-east Ukraine and have occupied Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
The non-profit Institute for the Study of War (ISW) tracked the positions of Ukrainian troops through open-source videos and photographs of the operation and marked the areas where Ukrainian troops were seen advancing. Blue areas indicate areas where Ukrainians have entered.
Russia has deployed its troops to prevent further invasion of Ukraine. The purpose of the Ukrainian operation is unclear, but Kiev’s operation appears to be the biggest challenge facing Putin’s Russia since the war began in February 2022.
Ukraine has remained largely silent about the attack. Meanwhile, Russia has declared a “federal state of emergency” and sent troops to defend the region.
Geolocation of the Ukrainian Advance
ISW said Ukrainian mechanised troops, consisting of tanks, infantry and armoured vehicles, had made a “rapid” advance of about 35 kilometres into Russia, but ISW added that it did not appear the Ukrainians “definitely have control of that area”.
Russian troops, FSB border guards and elements of the Chechen “Akhmat” units, a motorized unit operating in the Chechen Republic and fighting for Russia, are operating in the Kursk region and building field fortifications on the border. Ukrainian troops broke through them. Based on information received by ISW, as of August 8, Ukrainian troops are located in Sverdlikovo, Sudzha, Malaya and Lyubimovka.
Vladimir Putin has described the incursion as a “large-scale provocation” by Kiev and Russia’s top general has vowed to crush it. Meanwhile, an officer in the Chechen Akhmat unit said: “The situation is not irreversible. Nothing supernatural happened, yes, our people were killed, that’s a fact. The enemy has penetrated several settlements,” said Gen. Apti Alaudinov, a close ally of Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov and commander of the Akhmat special forces.
Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian troops are advancing in small groups behind Russian lines, bypassing Russian fortifications before clashing with them and then retreating without making any attempt to consolidate control over their advance.
The new frontline in Russia is far from other areas where there has been heavy fighting since the war began. Significant fighting took place in eastern Ukraine, a large part of which is claimed to be under Russian control. In the east, Donetsk, Luhansk and Horlivka were under Russian control before the war began two years ago. Russian troops have moved further west from these areas and control a frontline stretching from the south of Ukraine to the north-east.
According to ISW’s map, the red line represents Russia’s advance into Ukraine, and the black dotted lines represent Russian control of Ukrainian territory before the war began.
Ukrainian drones targeted residential buildings in the border areas of Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod. Ukrainian fighters have made several brief incursions into Russia since the start of the conflict in February 2022.
Russia sends troops
Russian military experts have blasted authorities for not detecting the incursions earlier. The Ukrainian invasion has entered its third day. Russia initially sent in air and artillery troops to halt the attacks, but they failed to halt the advance.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said it was sending contingents of military hardware, including rocket launchers, artillery, tanks and heavy trucks, to bolster its defences in the region.
Russia attacked a supermarket in Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine with artillery. The attack is Russia’s response to Ukraine’s advance. Ten people were killed and 35 injured in the shelling. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to avenge the attack.
“Russia will be held accountable for this terror, and we will do everything we can to ensure that the world stands with Ukraine in our defense and in saving the lives of our people,” Zelenskyy said on XTV.
Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region. Russian terrorists attacked an ordinary supermarket and a post office. There are people under the rubble. Rescue operations are underway, and every effort will be made to save them.
At the moment, it is known that four people have been killed. My… pic.twitter.com/Sd9vrGTHTc
– Volodymyr Zelensky / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024
Kostyantynivka has been attacked before and Russian shelling is common there.
Attack to take advantage?
Kharkiv in Ukraine has been a major point of conflict between troops and has seen fierce battles several times before. In May, Russia launched a new offensive in the region and captured an important area of Kharkiv. In this attack, Russia dropped 1,000 kg guided bombs on a hardware store, killing 16 people.
Last year Ukrainian troops launched a major counteroffensive to recapture Kharkiv, almost reaching the Russian border. Kharkiv has been occupied by Russia since the war began on February 24, 2022.
This Russian-controlled region is very close to the international border and is several kilometres north of the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Ukraine’s ongoing offensive in Kursk could be a way to gain leverage at the negotiating table for a ceasefire in the regions by forcing the enemy to withdraw troops from other areas to reinforce the frontline. The Ukrainian objective is still unclear.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Washington was “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little bit better understanding”. He added that “there has been no change in our policy” and Ukraine could use US-supplied weapons only “to target imminent threats across the border”.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of the Kremlin: “It’s a little odd that this is being called a provocation, when Russia has violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
