Despite her loss in the presidential election, Democratic Senate candidates in various states performed better than Kamala Harris.
Notably, Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Jon Tester in Montana had vote shares 7 points higher than Harris, but still lost their respective races. Ruben Gallego’s vote share in Arizona was 4 points more than Harris and he is currently leading. In Texas, Colin Allred garnered 3 points more vote share than Harris but failed to unseat Ted Cruz. Other notable performances include Jackie Rosen in Nevada with 2 points more vote share, although the race is still very close, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, who won with 1 point more vote share than Harris. Additionally, as of Wednesday morning, Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania had vote shares nearly 1 point higher than Harris.
According to a report by Vox, these results show that voters are distinguishing between the presidential race and statewide races, with some Democratic Senate candidates performing better than expected.
This difference raises questions about the nature of the backlash against Democrats. Was it specifically targeted at Harris or reflective of broader anti-Democratic sentiment?
In American politics, it is common for candidates to hope that a popular presidential candidate will bring success in statewide races. This trickle-down effect could give his party an edge in other contests.
However, the phenomenon of ticket distribution can sometimes spoil these plans. Ticket-splitting occurs when voters vote for candidates from opposing parties in the same election.
While rare in today’s hyper-partisan environment, ticket splitting still occurs. Interestingly, even with the Republican winning the White House, some state Democrats are managing to come out on top. This shows that voters are choosing deliberately rather than voting blindly on party lines.
In 2012, six states fielded their tickets in eight races. For example, Montana and Missouri elected Democrats to the governor’s office and the Senate but voted for Republican Mitt Romney for the presidency.
In 2016, five states split their tickets, voting for either a Republican governor or a Democratic governor along with their presidential choice, and in 2020 only three states demonstrated split-ticket voting.
