First, I want to get a comprehensive understanding from you where you believe that the leadership of the Indian markets. Let us say that we have had many news flow in the context of FTA, tariff, FII being purchased and sold. Ever since we finally interacted with you, the market construction has changed a lot. Do you continue to be bullish in markets and what is your point of view for this year for our Indian markets?
Manishi Raichudhary: If we take one step back and look around the first or second week of April when we had the first Liberation Day tariff and the role of the tariff or postponement on April 9th, since we have a solid run in the Indian markets and the entire Asian markets. They have moved anywhere between about 10% and 15% because it is time to breathe the Indian market in the near term and, in the near term, and we are watching.
In the short term, markets are not going too fast, we are also looking at the valuation which is about 50% to 55% higher than the average of Asia’s former Japanese in terms of PE multiplication and more than 100% in terms of book multiples.
And this average, if you look at the last 15 years, are usually nearly 40% and close to 60%, respectively. Therefore, it is higher than the long -term average.
Investors are starting to understand that kind. Second, and most importantly important, we are also seeing earnings estimates falling down, this is just the consequences season, we have been in its last few days.
The consensus EPS estimate for India for both financial 26 and financial 27 is about 5% to 6%. So, these are things that are going to play in the minds of investors right now.
There is nothing very worried about for a long time because we now come out in terms of some green shoots coming back, even the government costs that return to the infrastructure, they are starting to cut and with a very gentle inflation environment, we are in the horizon of that kind of situation. Therefore, the long -term looks nice, breathing in the short -term market, maybe the time improvement.
How do you believe that the global equity flow will move and I want to talk about India both in India and the West that Japan’s long bond warning has been issued, we have seen how to record their long -term borrowing expenses due to the fear and tariffs of demand. Do you think that in emerging markets, the flow of money will move into the developed world? How do you think the next few months will go out?
Manishi Raichudhary: I mean, from the second half of 2024 for the past few months and from the first quarter of 2025, we were sold to emerging markets, buy the United States, the trade is on. Now, we have been seeing that business for the opposite reason for the last few months.
As long as the US There is a lack of confidence as long as the markets are concerned. It is partly. Uneven or this unsetted policy is due to the environment that we are looking there and as a result of high inflation expectations, we have also seen bond yields moving, which means that the US bonds, the US. Treasuries that are seen as theoretical and histor sidelined safe haven investment, they are sold and sold in a very bad way.
Therefore, this trend is likely to continue for now. We are looking at money emerging markets, and especially in Asia-Pacific. However, Asia is about 80% of emerging markets. Until now big gainers are North Asia, which is Hong Kong, China, partly. Korea in the end and to some extent Taiwan.
The flow in India has also improved since the end of April, but they are still unstable on a daily basis. But if I think that the current situation continues, which is estimated to grow in the United States and inflation estimates are being improved, which leads to the yield of more Bond Bond bonds from there, then we are looking at this current flow trend, emerging markets will continue for the emerging markets.
(Now you can subscribe to our Etmarkets WhatsApp channel)
