This week’s invasion of Lebanon by Israel and missile attacks by Iran on its regional enemy, while the war in Gaza continues, have raised the risk of a high-intensity conflict across the Middle East.
Despite diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions, escalating violence now threatens to engulf more of the region, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calling “one tension after another Warns of a “dangerous cycle of escalation”.
AFP spoke to analysts to assess what might happen next:
– Will Israel retaliate? ,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday condemned the launch of nearly 200 missiles into his country, declaring: “Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.”
David Khalfa, a Middle East expert at the Jean-Jaures Foundation, a Paris-based think-tank, said Israel has no choice but to respond to the Iranian attack “because of the scale and the fact that the nature of the targets has changed.” “To include sensitive military sites.
This was the second time Iran directly attacked Israel. In April, a volley of about 300 drones and missiles triggered Israeli retaliation, destroying an Iranian air defense radar installation.
According to analysts, the response is expected to be much more widespread this time.
Many Israeli Jews are celebrating the New Year this week, so the holiday “may not be a good time to retaliate,” said Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
“But I don’t think it will take long,” he said.
-What options does Israel have? ,
According to Khalfa, since the Iranian attack, Israeli officials have argued that there was a “historic opportunity to deal decisively with the Iranian regime”.
The former prime minister, Naftali Bennett, was one of the first to call for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, which Israel considers an existential threat.
But the most sensitive equipment is believed to be buried underground where Israel may be unable to attack.
US President Joe Biden has advised against even trying, urging Israel to respond “in proportion” – although Netanyahu has often ignored his guidance in the past.
According to experts and Israeli media reports, other possible Israeli responses include targeted killings, attacks on Iranian industrial sites or cyberattacks.
Biden also mentioned ongoing discussions about possible attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, which sent crude prices soaring on Thursday.
Khalfa said that after decades of tension, Israel and Iran are now “not in a low-intensity confrontation but in an open war”, which could develop into a “regional war of attrition”.
– Do Iran and Israel want war? ,
“Iran has already thought things through, at least to some extent. They are prepared,” Citrinowicz said, suggesting that Tehran’s response to any Israeli retaliation would be “swift.”
Sima Shine, another Iran expert at the INSS, said the Islamic Republic has “undeniable” destructive capabilities.
“They can launch more than 200 or 300 missiles and they also have drones,” he said. He also warned about “terrorist operations abroad”, which could include attacks on Israeli diplomatic missions or Jewish community centers.
“Right now everything depends on Israel’s response, whether it turns into a regional war,” said Sina Tousi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington.
Both Netanyahu and Iran are “taking a huge gamble”, he said.
And with each increase, the risks increase.
However, both Iran and Israel have repeatedly stressed that they do not want to be trapped in a cycle of retaliatory violence.
Israel is already active on several military fronts.
In the Gaza Strip, forces are fighting Hamas, aiming to free the 97 hostages taken on October 7 who are still being held there.
In Lebanon, after days of airstrikes against Hezbollah, troops are now fighting Iran-backed militants on the ground.
And elsewhere in the region, Israel is confronting armed groups such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels who have stepped up their missile and drone attacks.
Ultimately, Citrinowicz said, both Iran and Israel “will seek a political solution” that could be supported by the United States and France, whose influence could play an important role in restoring peace, especially in Lebanon.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
