A global analysis on Monday estimated that infections by drug-resistant superbugs could kill up to 40 million people over the next 25 years, and researchers called for action to avoid that catastrophic scenario.
Superbugs – species of bacteria or germs that have become resistant to antibiotics, making them more difficult to treat – have been identified as a growing threat to global health.
The analysis is described as the first to track the global impact of superbugs over time and predict what might happen next.
According to the study published in The Lancet journal, between 1990 and 2021, superbugs – also known as antimicrobial resistance (AMR) – caused more than one million deaths each year worldwide.
The study said that superbug mortality among children under five years of age has decreased by more than 50 per cent over the last three decades, due to improved measures for prevention and control of infections in infants.
However, now when children are infected with superbugs, the infection becomes much more difficult to treat.
The death rate among people over the age of 70 has increased by more than 80 per cent over the same period, as the ageing population has become more vulnerable to infection.
Deaths from infections caused by a type of staph bacteria called MRSA, which has become resistant to many antibiotics, doubled to 130,000 in 2021 compared with three decades ago, the study said.
‘This danger is increasing’
Using modelling, the researchers estimated that – based on current trends – the number of direct deaths from AMR would increase by 67 percent to around two million per year by 2050.
According to modelling, this would also have contributed to annual mortality rates reaching 8.2 million, an increase of around 75 per cent.
In this scenario, AMR will cause 39 million direct deaths over the next quarter century, and a total of 169 million deaths.
But less dire scenarios are also possible.
Modelling suggests that if the world works to improve care for serious infections and access to antimicrobial medicines, it could save 92 million lives by 2050.
“These findings show that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat continues to grow,” co-author Mohsen Naghavi of the US-based Institute for Health Metrics said in a statement.
The researchers studied 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of drugs and pathogens, and 11 infectious syndromes such as meningitis. The study included data from 520 million individual records from 204 countries and territories.
It was released ahead of the high-level AMR meeting to be held at the United Nations on September 26.
Antimicrobial resistance is a natural phenomenon, but the overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans, animals, and plants has made the problem worse.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
