Vietnam experienced a significant decline in its birth rate in 2024, indicating a worrying trend. according to newsweekThe birth rate fell to 1.91 births per woman, the lowest since records began and below the replacement rate for the third consecutive year. This follows a decline to 1.93 in 2023 and 2.01 in 2022. A replacement rate of 2.1 is considered necessary to maintain population stability.
The falling birth rate raises concerns about maintaining economic growth and providing for a growing elderly population. Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the health ministry’s population authority, warned that Vietnam’s population of 100 million could begin to decline by the middle of the century, according to Vietnam News Agency. Pham said that if the replacement rate is restored and maintained, annual population growth could reach 0.17 percent, or 200,000 people per year. However, current projections suggest an annual decline of 0.04 percent between 2054 and 2059, increasing to 0.18 percent or 200,000 people annually between 2064 and 2069.
Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong described Vietnam’s gender imbalance of 112 male births for every 100 female births as another serious issue, although recent figures show slight improvement. At a conference organized by the Population Department of the Ministry of Health in Hanoi, Nguyen called for initiatives to improve “population quality”, including improved elderly health care, better communications, and better access to reproductive health and family planning services.
Officials fear Vietnam could follow other East Asian countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, where fertility rates have been steadily declining. Despite Vietnam’s strong economic growth, with GDP increasing by more than 5 percent annually (except in pandemic years), its aging population poses challenges. By 2049, Vietnam is projected to become a “very-old society”, with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or older.
Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen said the Health Ministry is studying and proposing policies to stabilize fertility rates, drawing lessons from global experiences. The ministry is drafting a population law, which will be introduced in the National Assembly in 2025.
The proposed legislation aims to maintain replacement-level fertility rates with measures tailored to different demographics and regions. Le Thanh Dung of the Vietnam Population Authority told Vietnam Plus that the provisions include encouraging women to give birth before the age of 35 and eliminating penalties for having a third child.
