World leaders begin UN climate talks next week, days after a knife-edge US election that could deal a blow to global efforts to limit dangerous warming.
The stakes are high for the COP29 conference in Azerbaijan where countries will have to agree on a new target to finance climate action across much of the world.
This comes in a year that is likely to be the hottest year in human history, which has already seen devastating floods, heat waves and hurricanes hit all corners of the globe.
The needs of nations to prevent future temperature increases from reaching even more dangerous levels are not being met.
But the leaders arriving in Baku face a number of challenges, including trade disputes, economic uncertainty and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Adding to the uncertainty, the US vote and the possible return of Donald Trump, who exited the Paris Agreement and has called climate change a “hoax”, could impact the talks and beyond.
“You can imagine that if Trump is elected, and if the election results become clear by the time we get to Baku, there will be a kind of crisis moment,” said Li Shuo, a Washington-based expert on climate diplomacy. Asia Society Policy Institute.
He said countries, possibly including China, were preparing to send a “clear message” in support of global climate cooperation if Trump defeats his rival Kamala Harris for the White House.
The UN talks are seen as crucial to laying the groundwork for a major new round of climate commitments early next year.
Current pledges will keep the world from exceeding the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius of temperature increase since the pre-industrial era.
“Decisions in Baku could profoundly shape the climate trajectory and whether 1.5 degrees remains within reach,” said Cosima Cassel of the think tank E3G.
clash over cash
Azerbaijan, which is hosting the November 11-22 talks, has expressed concern over its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and its human rights record.
Last year, countries committed to move away from fossil fuels and triple the use of renewable energy by 2030.
This year, negotiators should raise the target to $100 billion a year to help poor countries prepare for worsening climate impacts and transition away from coal, oil and gas.
The total amount of this new target, where it comes from and who has access to it are major points of contention.
UN-appointed experts estimate that developing countries, excluding China, will need to spend $2.4 trillion per year by 2030 on climate priorities.
Of that, $1 trillion must come from international public and private finance.
Existing wealthy donors, including the EU and the US, have said new sources of funding will have to be found, including from China and the oil-rich Gulf states.
China – the world’s largest polluter and second-largest economy today – pays for climate finance but on its own terms.
The World Resources Institute said in a September paper that between 2013 and 2022, China paid an average of $4.5 billion a year to other developing countries.
Funds could also be raised through pollution charges, wealth taxes or eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, among other ideas.
Rachel Cletus, policy director of the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said negotiators in Azerbaijan should aim for a $1 trillion deal.
The money is “not a donation,” Cletus told AFP, adding that it should mostly come in the form of aid or very low-interest loans to avoid increasing the debt of developing countries.
“Financing may seem like a technical issue, but we all know money talks,” he told AFP.
“Nations either make these investments upfront, or we’re going to have to pay a huge price for it, in disaster costs, in pollution costs. So this is a fork in the road. We have a choice.”
green power
The UN Environment Program has said that current climate pledges, even if fully implemented, will push the world towards 2.6C of warming by the end of the century – a devastating threat to human societies and ecosystems.
An agreement in Baku is seen as crucial to outlining more ambitious national pledges in the coming months.
Li said future commitments could be affected by the US vote, with countries including China waiting to see the results before finalizing long-term goals.
Beyond Baku, he said, there is also “a growing intersection between the climate and economic agendas,” including clean energy superpower China and trade fights between the US and Europe.
He said progress was “more visible in the green economy, which is winning the race for solar, wind, electric vehicles and energy storage”.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
