According to an analysis published on Tuesday, human-powered climate change set a platform for Los Angeles wildfires by reducing rain, reducing rain and expanding dangerous overlap between flammable drought conditions and powerful Santa Ana winds.
The study conducted by dozens of researchers concluded that the fuel -fuel condition of the blaze was about 35 percent more, which was likely to be due to global warming due to burning fossil fuels.
“Climate change enhanced the risk of disastrous LA wildfires,” said Claire Barns of Imperial College London, “An international educational cooperation, lead author of the study about the world weather.
“Drought conditions are rapidly pushing in winter, the strong Santa Ana is increasing the possibility of breakdown of fire during the winds that can convert small ignition into fatal infections.
“California will continue to be hot, dry and more flammable, without a sharp transition away from planetary fossil fuel.”
– It is estimated to deteriorate –
The study did not address the direct causes of the wildfire, which exploded around Los Angeles on 7 January, killing at least 29 people and destroyed more than 10,000 houses, the most destructive in the history of the city.
Investigators are investigating the role of the power company Southern California Edison in one of the Blaze, Eaton Fire.
Instead, researchers analyzed weather figures and climate models how such incidents have developed under today’s climate, which has heated about 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 ° C) above pre-industrial levels.
Using the methods reviewing the colleague, he found that the hot, dry and air conditions were 1.35 times more likely due to climate change.
Further, the study has warned that under the current scenarios, where global warming reaches 4.7F (2.6C) by 2100, similar fire-season incidents will become 35 percent more likely in January.
Historically, October has marked the end of the wildfire season through December rain.
However, these rains have declined in recent decades.
The study found that less rainfall in these months is now 2.4 times more likely during neutral L. Nino conditions, which leads to Santa Ana Ana air season in December and January.
– Area of ​​uncertainty –
Climate change and relationship between Santa Ana winds – which are formed in western deserts, then heating and dries because they flow under the mountains of California – remain unclear.
While most studies predict the fall in these winds due to the heating of the climate, some suggest that the hot Santa Ana will remain air incidence and especially strong years.
This year’s fire followed two wet winters in 2022-2023 and 2023–2024, which promoted the growth of grass and brush. However, almost no rain left the vegetation dry and highly flammable in this winter.
Globally, excessive changes between very wet and very dry conditions, known as “rainy whiplash”, are becoming more common. These swings are powered by a warm atmosphere that can catch and release the greater amount of moisture, the weather can increase extremes.
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