“Swing States” – The elephant in the room is the major decider of the United States presidential election. Also known as battleground states, these states can make or break any candidate.
Historically speaking, presidential elections in the United States have often been shaped by three types of states: red states, blue states, and swing states. Red states are where Republicans have won consistently since 1980, while blue states are where Democrats have dominated since 1992. These states are generally considered predictable in terms of their election results.
However, swing states are a different story altogether. Here, the battles between Republicans and Democrats are often extremely close, with winners emerging victorious by very narrow margins. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,000 votes.
About 10 states have been considered swing states, but for the 2024 election, the key swing states to watch are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Interestingly, candidates often focus their campaigns on these swing states, spending a disproportionate amount of time trying to win these states.
According to surveys conducted by YouGov through October 31, Vice President Kamala Harris leads by small margins in Wisconsin (4 percentage points), Pennsylvania (+3), Michigan (+3), and Nevada (+1). Trump is barely ahead in North Carolina (+1) and Georgia (+1), and Arizona is tied.
Georgia
Biden’s 2020 victory marked the first Democratic victory in Georgia since 1992. The state’s changing demographics, particularly its increasing diversity and growing population of more than 10 million, are expected to benefit Kamala Harris, who has actively courted minority voters. However, the 2024 election has revealed an unexpected trend: Vice President Kamala Harris is performing strongly in predominantly white states like Michigan and Wisconsin, while more diverse states are favoring former President Donald Trump. This surprising dynamic is also evident in Georgia, highlighting a shift in traditional voting patterns.
nevada
Despite only having six electoral votes, Nevada may hold the key to winning the presidential election. Its diverse population, with 40% of eligible voters identifying as Latino, Black or Asian American Pacific Islander, may play a significant role. Historically, these groups have shown stronger support for Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. However, economic concerns such as rising cost of living, inflation, and immigration could swing the tide in Trump’s favor.
michigan
Michigan, a state with 15 electoral votes, has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold, but Donald Trump’s 2016 victory shook things up. His appeal to white working-class voters ensured his victory, dealing a stunning blow to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Fast forward to 2024, and Michigan’s diversity could give Kamala Harris the edge, especially since it is more diverse than other controversial “blue wall” states. However, there is work involved when it comes to the Arab-American side of the state as they have expressed dissatisfaction over the way the Biden administration is handling the war in Gaza.
pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, once a reliable Democratic stronghold, has now become a hotly contested battleground. It has 19 Electoral College votes and is the most coveted vote for both parties. The state’s transformation is rooted in its economic challenges, particularly the decline of its industrial manufacturing base in “Rust Belt” cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This decline has left many residents looking for change and opportunity. Both Trump and Harris have frequently campaigned in the state, addressing key issues such as infrastructure and manufacturing.
Arizona
Arizona was a close contest in the 2020 presidential election, with Biden winning by a narrow margin of only 10,457 votes. Now, Trump is counting on voter dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policies to flip the state red again. Since Arizona shares a border with Mexico, immigration is a key issue and Trump is hoping to capitalize on frustrations with the current administration.
North Carolina
North Carolina, once a reliable Republican stronghold in presidential elections, has now become a difficult state due to its rapidly changing demographics. Historically, with the notable exception of Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, the state has voted Republican for most of the past half century. However, the state’s population growth, particularly in the Research Triangle, has brought an influx of white, college-educated voters, Latinos, Asian Americans, and a significant black population, making up about 1 in 5 voters.
wisconsin
Trump views Wisconsin as winnable and has taken steps to demonstrate his commitment to the state. The Republican Party also held its national convention there in the summer. Initially, Trump had a lead against Biden, but Kamala Harris narrowed the gap, making the contest in the state a close one.
