The fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad broke a vital link in Iran’s “axis of resistance,” but Tehran will look for ways to adapt to the new reality, analysts say.
After nearly 14 years of war in Syria, a massive offensive launched by the Islamist-led rebel coalition has defeated Assad.
The offensive began on November 27, just as a ceasefire took effect in the war between Iran’s powerful proxy Hezbollah and Israel.
Hezbollah has long used Syria as its main channel for arms and supplies from Iran.
With Assad gone, it remains to be seen how Hezbollah will adapt, especially after the staggering losses it suffered in its most recent war.
‘Borderline of Resistance’
In the past, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final authority on his country’s affairs, has said that “Syria is in the front line of resistance against Israel”.
In Tehran’s words, the axis of resistance itself includes some proxy forces united in opposition to Iran and Israel, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Palestinian operator group Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, as well as smaller groups in Iraq.
By Sunday, Assad’s government was a key component of the axis, and would likely not have survived so long if not for the military support of Hezbollah and Iran.
But Assad’s fall on Sunday was a major blow to the loose coalition, and the latest in a series of setbacks for Iran in the fight against Israel.
In recent months Israel has killed Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, and Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and destroyed the mid-level leadership of both groups.
Iran also blames Israel for the killing of former Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in an attack in Tehran in July.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic has lost hundreds of its Revolutionary Guards in Syria in the country’s more than a decade-long civil war, which has also included Israeli airstrikes.
‘to destabilize’
Within Iran, some believe the Syrian rebels’ goal was to break ties between Tehran and its allies.
Mehdi Zakarian, an expert on international relations in Tehran, told AFP that Iran “will no longer be able to support Hezbollah as before” because of the threat to its influence in Syria.
In Tehran’s official narrative, the uprising against Assad’s regime was a US-Israeli conspiracy to “destabilize” the Middle East and redraw its political map.
The Syrian civil war was sparked by a crackdown on democracy protests inspired by the Arab Spring.
At Assad’s request, Iran sent him to Syria as a “military advisor” to support Assad’s forces.
Shia Muslim militias were also deployed close to Iran, allowing Tehran to gain influence in Syria, which borders not only Lebanon but also Israel.
Following the fall of Damascus on Sunday, the Iranian embassy was vandalized, an act that would have been previously unthinkable.
‘He didn’t pay attention’
And while Iran was a key supporter of Assad, few official criticisms of the former leader were emerging after his fall.
“Bashar was an opportunity for Iran, but he did not pay enough attention to the Islamic Republic’s recommendations,” the Iranian news agency Fars said.
Following the announcement of the rebels’ victory, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that its policy towards any new Syrian government would depend on “developments in Syria and the region, as well as the behavior of actors”.
But the statement also said Iran hoped to continue “friendly” relations with the country.
On Saturday, as rebels were rapidly advancing towards Damascus, Tehran called on all parties involved in the conflict to engage in talks.
That statement by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was significant, not least because of its timing, and seemed to mark a change in tone.
Iran has long labeled any form of opposition in Syria as “terrorism.”
On Sunday, with the opposition now looking dominant, Araghchi said: “Syria played an important role in supporting the resistance, but it is not that the resistance will stop without Syria.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
