The summit, held on NATO’s 75th anniversary, was meant to showcase the triumph of a bigger and stronger alliance. But instead, leaders are coming together in Washington in the shadow of setbacks in Ukraine and electoral setbacks on both sides of the Atlantic.
US President Joe Biden, fighting for his political life after a disastrous debate with NATO-sceptic Donald Trump, will turn his attention from election campaigning to welcome leaders of the 32-nation transatlantic alliance for three days starting Tuesday.
Biden has also invited the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, signaling NATO’s growing role in Asia in the face of a rising China.
But the highlight of the summit will be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is hoping for a concrete sign of support even though NATO will not invite his country to join.
NATO, founded in 1949 to provide collective security against the Soviet Union, in some ways returned to its original mission when allies united to defend Ukraine after Russia invaded it in 2022.
Ukraine has pleased much of the West by pushing back Russia’s attempt to win a quick victory. But Moscow’s forces are steadily advancing and pushing further east.
A European official acknowledged that the atmosphere ahead of the NATO summit has become “gloomy” as Ukraine slips away from a fragile front.
“This summit will be very different from initial plans because it is taking place at a critical juncture for European security,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Russia today is in a position that is quite comfortable. They feel they can just wait,” he said.
The Shadow of Trump
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the summit is taking place at “the best of times and the worst of times.”
“This is the best time, because the alliance knows what its goal is – to deter Russia. Alliance members are spending more,” he said.
“But it is also the worst time — obviously because of the war in Ukraine, the challenges of increasing European defense spending, concerns about the credibility of the United States.”
Trump, who has in the past praised Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, has long criticized NATO, calling it an unfair burden on the United States as it spends more on it than on any other ally.
The 2024 Republican presidential candidate — who was impeached in his first term for pressuring Zelensky — has insisted he can prevent war, with his advisers raising the possibility of conditional future US aid to Ukraine on entering into talks to surrender territory.
Trump has held a slight lead over Biden in recent polls. Meanwhile, France – where President Emmanuel Macron is considering sending troops to Ukraine – is also facing political change with a strong lead for the far-right, which is historically close to Russia, in legislative elections.
These setbacks come as Putin recently hosted Russia-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, which currently holds the presidency of the European Union.
The NATO summit is also expected to mark the diplomatic debut of a new leader – British Prime Minister Keir Starmer – after his Labour Party won a landslide election victory.
Finding a way to Ukraine
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has led efforts to have the alliance, not the United States, take the lead in coordinating military aid for Ukraine.
Stoltenberg also wants allies to commit to providing at least 40 billion euros ($43 billion) a year in military aid to Ukraine to ensure reliable and sustained support as Kiev prepares for a long war against Russia.
Diplomats have dubbed such measures “Trump-proofing” the alliance, though few believe NATO or support for Ukraine could hold up as well without the United States, which has approved $175 billion in military and other aid for Kyiv under Biden.
The summit comes shortly after the accession of two more countries – Finland and Sweden – to NATO, having overcome their reluctance to formally join the alliance after the invasion of Ukraine, having unsuccessfully sought membership.
Diplomats say the United States is keen to hold a smooth, drama-free meeting and avoid the kind of bitter recriminations that broke out at last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania, where Zelenskyy failed to secure a firm commitment to keep Ukraine in the alliance.
Ukrainian officials admit there is no prospect of a change of mind in Washington. Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have opposed Ukrainian membership, believing that granting membership to a country already engaged in war would be tantamount to NATO confronting a nuclear-armed Russia.
Biden has instead signed a 10-year security pact with Ukraine, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin saying the United States would soon announce $2.3 billion in new military aid.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
