Apple exported a total of 13.2 million iPhones from China to the US between January and April 2025. In the same period, India sent 11.5 million iPhones to the US, according to estimates. At first glance, China still seems to be a leading, but a different story is revealed from a close. India is continuously catching in the month after the month, and in April, it actually overtook China for the first time, exporting 3.3 million iPhones than China’s 900,000 units.

Market analysis Omdia (East Canalis), through CNBCIn April alone, the US iPhone shipment from India increased by 76 percent year-on-year to reach about 3 million units. This rapid growth declined by 76 percent in shipment from China during the same month. Omdia’s research manager Le Zuan Chiv said, “This is the latest trade war with China, a type of disturbance, which Apple has been trying to prepare himself for a long time.” Research connects customs records and channel data from Apple distributors.

Apple began to invest heavy in India’s supply chain during the Covid-19 epidemic, and those efforts are being paid. Chiv said that unusually high export numbers in March – 4.4 million from India – The company may be due to the company’s stockpilling before former US President Donald Trump’s “mutual tariff” on 2 April.

Despite Trump’s decision to exempt iPhones from these tariffs on 11 April, Apple’s Indo-centric production strategy remains unchanged. CEO Tim Cook confirmed in early May, that most of the iPhones sold in the US would be constructed in India.

Currently, iphones imported from China are facing 30 percent of additional duties under Trump-era’s tariff, while the Aadhaar tariff is 10 percent for countries like India. However, analysts believe that India still has to go a long way. “India’s manufacturing capacity is not expected to grow enough to increase enough to take the entirety of American demand. It is still very early,” Chiv said. He said that Apple recently started shipping the top and ended iPhone 16 Pro model from India. Estimates suggest us that the iPhone demands about 20 million units per quarter, and India does not expect to meet the demand that is at least till 2026.

Research firm Daniel Group CEO Daniel Namman said that when the final assembly of the iPhone is going to India, a large part of the supply chain remains in China. “This was actually a very low lift for him to migrate more and more from China to India from China,” he said.

However, the governments involved have not paid any attention. Trump recently threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on all iPhone imports, stating that he should be built in the US, “not India, or any other place.” Meanwhile, China is allegedly trying to slow down India’s rise by limiting access to high-technical equipment and efficient labor required for iPhone production.

Nevertheless, experts believe that despite Apple challenges, they will live on their India path. Dan Evece, a global head of Tech Research in Vesabash Securities, said, “Producing iPhone in the US is a fairy tale in our view, and Apple will continue to move on to India’s path. Cook will look to interact with Trump, but India is focus and changing.”