Canadian Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under increasing pressure to step down after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on Monday over a policy clash, one of the worst crises of his nine years in power.
Here are some possible paths forward for Canada:
Could Trudeau be forced out by his Liberal Party?
Unlike Britain, where party leaders are chosen by parliamentary caucus and can be immediately removed, the Liberal leader is selected by a special convention of members. So if Trudeau wants to stay, there is no formal party mechanism to remove him.
He said, if members of his own cabinet and a large number of MLAs ask him to leave, he may conclude that his position is untenable.
Can Trudeau be ousted by Parliament?
Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have the confidence of the elected House of Commons. The vote on the budget and other spending is considered a measure of confidence and if a government loses, it falls. In virtually all cases, the election campaign begins immediately.
Additionally, the government should allot a few days to opposition parties in each session when they can move motions on any matter, including no-confidence. If all parties vote against the Liberals, Trudeau will fall. If an opposition party is absent, it will remain in power.
The House of Commons will close on Tuesday for winter recess and will not return until January 27. This suggests the earliest a confidence vote could take place is late February or March as the opposition may take several weeks to present its motion. ,
Is there any other way to oust Trudeau?
Ultimate constitutional power in Canada rests with the Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of the head of state, King Charles. Theoretically she can remove Trudeau but this will not happen in real life. “The governor general will not fire a prime minister who still has the confidence of the Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a constitutional expert and professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.
How can Trudeau survive?
Trudeau’s Liberals have a minority of seats in the House and so rely on the support of other parties on a vote-by-vote basis to govern. So far, the left-leaning New Democrats, who seek to attract the same voters as the Liberals, have helped keep Trudeau in power. Although New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh is under pressure to unseat Trudeau, polls show his party, like the Liberals, will be crushed by the official opposition Conservatives in the election. So he may decide that keeping the struggling Trudeau in power would better serve his objectives.
What happens if Trudeau resigns?
If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party holds a special leadership conference. The challenge for the party is that these conventions typically take months to arrange and elections may be held before then, leaving the Liberals in the hands of an interim prime minister who will not be elected by members. This never happened in Canada. The Liberals may try to run a smaller convention than usual, but this may face opposition from candidates who feel it will disadvantage them.
There is no way that Freeland could be immediately named Prime Minister on a permanent basis, as tradition dictates that the interim leader not run as a candidate to lead the party. If Freeland decided to run in the race, he and other serious contenders would not be considered for the role.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
