On December 17, 2010, Tunisian fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest against the seizure of his shop by local authorities. His actions ignited a pan-Arab anti-regime mass uprising that came to be known as the ‘Arab Spring’. On the eve of the 14th anniversary of that event and against the backdrop of last fortnight’s coup in Syria – the longest-running and bloodiest expression of the Arab Spring – an analysis of this rare event is necessary.
From Tunisia to Egypt to Libya, revolution everywhere
Over the past 14 years, the Arab Spring has jolted many Arab countries, although its net impact remains controversial. Bouazizi’s self-immolation led to massive demonstrations in Tunisia and within a month the autocratic president who had been in power for 23 years was ousted. Egypt followed soon after: mass demonstrations centered on Cairo’s Tahrir Square forced President Mubarak to step down after 18 days, despite all efforts to remain in power. He remained in power for 32 years and was replaced by the Supreme Military Council, which ultimately paved the way for the country’s first democratically held elections. The Muslim Brotherhood government lasted only a few months and was overthrown by the military, which still holds power.
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, president of oil-rich Libya for 42 years, also faced anti-government protests in mid-February 2011, which soon turned into an armed rebellion in the eastern coastal city of Benghazi. A UN Security Council resolution authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect civilians was weaponized by 27 Western and Middle Eastern powers to launch intensive air strikes against pro-Gaddafi forces. This tipped the balance against government forces and ultimately led to the death of President Gaddafi in battle on 20 October. Despite massive bloodshed, the civil war continues and the country is still divided, with one government each in Tripoli and Benghazi. Libya was the first case of foreign interests being strongly involved in influencing the outcome of the Arab Spring; This was not the last.
The protests that began in February 2011 in Bahrain were partly inspired by the Shia majority population under the Sunni monarchy. Initially their aim was to achieve greater political freedom and respect for human rights, but repression by the authorities pushed them in that direction. Fellow monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council were concerned by the alleged involvement of Iran and Hezbollah in disrupting the smallest Gulf state and intervened militarily to suppress the protests. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tried to suppress similar protests and reform movements with forceful tactics.
Civil war in Syria and Yemen
The Arab Spring protests in Syria and Yemen, two ethnically diverse and politically frozen republics under dynastic rule, exposed long-suppressed popular sub-national aspirations. The confrontations did not remain peaceful for long, each turning into a bitter civil war involving neighboring and global powers, resulting in adverse outcomes. In Syria, a country of 23 million, a 13-year civil war has resulted in nearly half a million deaths, the internal and external displacement of nearly 15 million people, and half a trillion dollars in destruction. Yemen continues to be divided into a north run by al-Houthis and a UN-recognized coalition in the south – both linked by disease and malnutrition.
Despite complex precedents, the second wave of the Arab Spring spread to Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq after 2018. Although the basic objective of all of them were reforms, the demands were more local and focused: in Algeria, “herk“The aim of the movement was to prevent President Bouteflika, who has been in power for 19 years, from seeking a new term despite his physical disability. The Sudanese people protested against 32 years of corrupt and violent rule by a military dictator. Iraqi and Lebanese youth wanted to bring down muhsasa taifiyehA system of communal power-sharing. Although this wave of Arab Springers partially achieved their immediate objectives, they are all still mired in their respective crises.
Apart from these two waves, the Arab Spring affected almost all parts of the Arab world from Western Sahara to Jordan and Kuwait.
A new style of dissent
It is important not to over-contextualize the Arab Spring. Even before 2011, there were similar protest movements in the Arab world, the most prominent of which were the bread riots in Egypt and Algeria as well as the Palestinian intifadah since the mid-1980s. However, two decades later, the Arab Spring became a new dissent genre – accelerated by state control by the spread of satellite television and social media. Secondly, such protests also took place in other non-Arab but Islamic countries such as Iran (hijab protests), Pakistan (detention of Imran Khan) and most recently in Bangladesh (dismissal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina), with mixed results. Even Israel, a regional exception, has repeatedly staged mass protests against government efforts to curb judicial powers and bring Israeli hostages home from Hamas captivity.
The foregoing helps us identify the root causes of the Arab Spring. Among them, the most widely felt reason may be the ‘feeling of’.hogra‘, a Maghrebi Arabic word roughly equivalent to the contempt of the powerful towards an ordinary person; This can be expanded to include the repressive regimes, personality cults and sham democracy that are quite common in the Middle East. When this is combined with stagnant, non-inclusive and non-representative politics, it reveals the Nasser-era paradigm of the governed-fan-benign-dictator with an ethos of the urbanized, better-educated and more aspirational. Has gone out rapidly. Modern Arab society. Demographic factors then emerged: young people approaching working age found few meaningful jobs within the country and faced declining employment opportunities and migration abroad due to the global recession and low oil prices. These frustrations were further compounded by corruption and unbalanced wealth distribution. Finally, the average citizen was much younger than the gerontocrats who ruled for long periods of time, which led to political isolation and alienation. The boiling cauldron of public anger suddenly and easily spilled over into the Arab Spring. Top officials’ recourse to police terror and/or palliative measures was insufficient to stem the flood, and the shiny but brittle state cracked under the pressure.
Why did the revolution fail?
It is logical to ask why, despite initial success, the Arab Spring almost universally failed to reform the system. Many reasons are being given for this slowness.
First, the Arab Spring movements were initially largely spontaneous, without any leadership or agenda. His initial objective was limited to change at the top. Once this was achieved, they had little clue and unity on how to better structure replacement because all governance models in the Arab world were flawed. Secondly, the long repressive regime meant that there was no credible “loyal opposition” – and the void was filled by Islamists (who often ran mosque-based clandestine networks) or the military.
Third, foreign interventions often muddied the situation: they vacillated between maintaining the status quo or supporting democratic aspirations. The Western powers, which wield considerable power over this eco-strategic area, also played their part, especially in oil-rich countries.
Fourth, catastrophic anarchy often prompts Islamic terrorism to take over the agenda – as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State did. Last, but not least, national boundaries associated with ethnic and tribal groups also cross-pollinated the Arab Spring. The outcome was often a free-for-all, with the most organized and committed side often winning.
Where is the Arab world?
On the 14th anniversary of the Arab Spring, it is natural to ask whether the Arab world is better off today and what its long-term impact will be. So far, the most concrete conclusion from the Arab Spring is that a lasting socio-political change cannot arise just yet – it needs to be developed systematically. One might even venture to suggest that there is no clear winner so far of the Arab Spring experience – least of all the masses who have been not only politically duped but also materially worse off. For example, from the first decade of the Arab Spring to 2021, the average Syrian’s nominal per capita income declined by 86%, from $2971 to $421. So, although the al-Assad regime was finally gone 13 years after the Arab Springers first sought its ouster, the epic death and destruction made it a terrible victory. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the successful Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led Salafi Sunni coalition will reform.
At this stage, all one can safely say about the impact of the Arab Spring incident is that it has shown a harsh mirror to various stakeholders and made them aware of the limits of their respective powers. While one would like this awareness to help them shift socio-political dynamics towards greater restraint and mutual adjustment, evidence on the ground suggests that such hope may remain an ever-diminishing desert mirage.
(The author is a retired Indian Ambassador who learned Arabic in Damascus. He currently heads Eco-Diplomacy & Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
