The civil war in Syria had subsided. But 13 years after the beginning of one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century, a new surge in violence has drawn renewed attention to a conflict that had disappeared from the world’s headlines. Syrian rebel forces have launched a major offensive on Aleppo, Syria’s once thriving commercial hub, in the first challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s rule in years, potentially destabilizing the already volatile Middle East. doing.
Why aleppo matters
Aleppo, located about 350 km north of the capital Damascus, has been a key battlefield in the Syrian civil war. Before the conflict, it was one of Syria’s largest cities, home to 2.3 million people.
In 2012, rebel forces captured the eastern part of Aleppo, making it a stronghold of the rebellion against President Assad. However, the balance changed in 2016 when Syrian government forces, backed by a brutal Russian air campaign, recaptured the city. The siege of Aleppo became symbolic due to indiscriminate bombardment, starvation tactics, and mass displacement. By recapturing Aleppo, Assad strengthened his hold on key areas, bolstered by Russian and Iranian support.
Photo courtesy: Reuters
Rebel attacks have targeted areas around Aleppo and moved towards its outskirts. If rebels succeed in breaking through, it could disrupt Assad’s control over the crisis-hit country and reignite intense urban warfare.
the actors behind the offensive
The primary force leading this charge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Once affiliated with the terrorist group al-Qaeda, HTS has reinvented itself over the past few years, claiming to focus on governance and military tactics in opposition-held areas. While the United States and the United Nations continue to designate HTS as a terrorist organization, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has sought to distance the group from its extremist roots.
Photo courtesy: Reuters
HTS’s changes include efforts to promote civilian rule in areas under its control, as well as limited access to religious minorities. Despite these changes, the group has maintained a controversial reputation, accused of harboring extremist elements and tolerating terrorist activities within its territory.
HTS includes several Turkish-backed factions, operating under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army. These groups have long had a complex relationship, often fighting among themselves despite their shared opposition to Assad.
Objectives of rebel attack
In a video statement announcing the operation, rebel military commander Lieutenant Colonel Hassan Abdulghani described the operation as a defensive necessity.
According to the New York Times, he said, “This operation is not a substitute for pushing back their firing on our people. It is an obligation to defend our people and their land.” “It has become clear to everyone that regime militias and their allies, including Iranian mercenaries, have declared open war on the Syrian people.”
The rebels’ immediate goals include stopping airstrikes on civilian areas, recapturing territory, and closing vital supply routes for government forces. So far their advance has been rapid, capturing several villages, strategic highway interchanges and military positions in Aleppo province.
Assad regime’s response
Syrian state media reported fierce resistance by government forces, with rebel fighters claiming casualties. The Syrian army, boosted by Russian air support, has launched intense air strikes on opposition-held areas including the cities of Idlib and Atareb. Civilian casualties have mounted, with rescue groups such as the White Helmets reporting dozens of deaths.
Assad’s key ally Iran also suffered losses in the attack. The casualties also included a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The Shiite branch, the Assad family, has long relied on its alliance with Iran to remain in power. This alliance has been particularly beneficial since 2011, when President Assad first faced an anti-government rebellion.
As Syria descended into chaos in 2011, Iran was accused of providing about 80,000 combat personnel to Assad’s forces, while Russia provided air support.
regional mobility
The timing of the attack comes as Iran and its supporters, including Hamas and Hezbollah, are engaged in conflict elsewhere. Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza has put a strain on their resources. Additionally, Russia’s focus on its war in Ukraine limits its ability to provide adequate reinforcements to Syria.
Photo courtesy: Reuters
Türkiye, a major player in Syria, supports some of the rebel factions involved in the offensive. Israel continues its airstrikes on Iran-linked targets inside Syria to disrupt arms supplies to Hezbollah. This creates a volatile mix of overlapping conflicts.
The renewed fighting has had devastating consequences for Syrian civilians, especially in opposition-held areas. The International Rescue Committee estimates that about 7,000 families have recently been displaced.
North-western Syria is home to approximately 4 million people, most of whom have been displaced multiple times during the conflict. Many live in overcrowded camps with limited access to food, water and medical care. A resurgence of violence threatens to worsen these conditions and trigger another wave of mass displacement.
Implications for the Assad regime
While his regime controls about 70 percent of Syrian territory, much of this control depends on support from outside allies such as Russia and Iran.
Additionally, the offensive risks rekindling a broader conflict within Syria. Although the Islamic State has been defeated to a great extent, it is still operating in the region through sleeper cells. Weakening government control may provide these extremist groups with an opportunity to regroup and expand their activities.
