As I walked out of my Upper West Side polling station in New York City after casting my vote, the lack of energy in America’s most liberal city was palpable. Pins being sold just outside read, “Keep Kamala and take it on-a-la,” but the peace was about to be shattered.
Donald Trump’s spectacular comeback forces us to accept that Americans do not want this to continue like this. Same as India earlier this year. They are tired of the financial pain that began after the 2008 financial crisis, which has left many of them unemployed. The most powerful elements of rapid global economic growth in our lifetime – globalization and technological replacement – have created acute pain at the dinner tables of working-class Americans. And they’re hoping, despite the odds, that their ballot may prevail over that pill.
That’s why, like the re-emergence of a former president, a defining trend is now characterizing the US election cycle. And, I would argue, the Indian election cycle too.
officials beware
This is now the third presidential election since 2016 when the incumbent party has been voted out, a trend not seen since the 1970s when Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan were voted out in quick succession as inflation accelerated. Everyone else was eclipsed. Once there was an accident. Twice, a coincidence. Three times, one pattern.
In India, the lack of majority for the incumbent party this year was indicative of the same problem that is proving difficult for any global leader to solve. In fact, this year has seen the erosion, if not complete transformation, of existing power in every major government around the world, from Britain and Italy to Germany and Japan and beyond.
As Bill Clinton’s political strategist Jim Carville prophetically said thirty years ago, “It’s the economy, stupid.” But some would say that stock markets are at all-time highs and that economic growth was equal during both the Trump and Biden years. So, why the dissatisfaction? Wasn’t life feeling good enough?
Yes, but only for the elite class, whether in America or India. The real beneficiaries of the riches-to-riches story are the elite class. How long can you ignore a large population that now has to work an average of 2.5 jobs to maintain the same lifestyle as it did a decade ago? In the case of India too, yes, there are cheap mobile phones and food delivery, but job prospects may not be in line with youth aspirations.
In this disjointed mix, a message like Trump’s, which focuses primarily on inflation and its many symptoms – most notably immigration – would clearly be attractive. But the same happens with any politician who offers a change to the current status quo. It’s like a company changing multiple CEOs in the hope that its fortunes will change, without realizing that the problem lies with the product itself.
The polarization card is losing its edge
This election has shattered many myths – the most prominent being polarization – including that echo chambers are permanent and defined and will not distract voters from their trenches. This was certainly the case in 2016, when Trump’s victory was attributed to his marginal base of non-college-educated men. But in 2024, Trump’s victory is attributed to almost all subgroups.
One example is young men, and what is shocking for Democrats is that young men of color – whether Latino or Indian-American – are swinging to Trump. The Left is finally realizing that they cannot lump together all the minorities, just as the Right in India is realizing that the majority cannot always be a single voting block. His integrity and more importantly, his morality are being questioned. I disagree. It was not a vote for the messenger, it was a vote for the message.
This election has stuck the needle in the bubble of polarization that the world had sworn off in the last decade. Both parties tried to polarize voters, whether it was Trump with immigration or Harris with abortion. But it did not work. There are voters who chose Trump and abortion rights. Choice is no longer binary. Above all, voters in America are pragmatic.
The same is true for India also. India’s 2024 poll reflected dissatisfaction among common voters, with the economy overtaking everything else. The orthodox argument of caste or religious basis shaping voting patterns is fast becoming redundant.
As it has long been said, democracy is a luxury when there is not enough food on the table. But there are also parallels between the obsolete ‘Khan Market Gang’ in India and America’s coastal elite. Instead of focusing on the real issue of voters’ pain, the protectionist tone of the Democrats and the Indian opposition is ‘How can you vote for that?’ Smacks of moral superiority borne of privilege, not realism.
Only the betting market got it right
The media and pollsters have got it so wrong that they are in danger of losing their voice. These echo chambers are now acting as cheerleaders of political thought. They tell a narrative rather than act as arbiters of argument. It is ironic that the truest picture comes from the sources that have often been most tainted in history – the betting market in America and the betting market in India. Be it Trump’s victory or the poor performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), he was the one who got it right.
Kamla played well
Kamala Harris also emerged as a hero for many people. Clearly, many things that were out of his control went wrong for him: Biden’s self-interest in remaining in power, war fatigue, and the all-important anti-incumbency wave.
When my 10-year-old daughter, who was accompanying me to the polling booth, asked me why a woman was passed over again for the most powerful job in the world, I told her to take a long walk the next day. Because in the shortest presidential campaign in American history, at just 107 days, Kamala managed to achieve the impossible and outperform any reasonable expectation. The lotus didn’t have enough time to bloom for POTUS.
I don’t think America behaved like it was 2016 and decided to vote against a female president. The pain threshold that Trump pushed was very low on Maslow’s chart of needs for negotiating gender boundaries in American politics. A famous meme of the Kamala campaign was of a father going to the polling booth with his daughter and saying that he was voting for her. I believe the father nevertheless voted for his daughter, not necessarily as an endorsement of the candidate but as a hope to provide a better life for his family.
Trump needs a Hail Mary
But will Trump be able to fulfill that expectation? In 1980s America, Ronald Reagan, the modern hero of the Republican Party, achieved the impossible by confronting the problem of structural inflation and giving rise to decades of prosperity.
For Trump to leave the legacy he wants, he will have to deal aggressively over the next four years and provide a magical Reaganesque solution to the pain of the working class. Or, given the musical chairs game global politics has become, the Dems will return to the White House in 2028.
(Namrata Brar is an Indian-American journalist, investigative reporter and news anchor. She is the former US bureau chief of NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the authors
