As the most turbulent presidential campaign in decades enters its final hours, Americans could be forgiven for wondering: What just happened?
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are separated by a razor-thin margin in the polls — indicating that Tuesday’s election is like flipping a coin — and there is a difference in their future vision for the world’s leading economic and military power. US voters will either elect their first female, Black and Asian leader – or reappoint a chief executive who is seeking an unprecedented return to the White House he left in disgrace nearly four years ago.
That’s the artist – and then consider the background. The cycle began in a country still grappling with a once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic, as Americans elected Joe Biden, the oldest president in US history, and Trump’s supporters lamented his loss. Attacked the Capitol to try to overturn it. This has since included the outbreak of major wars in Europe and the Middle East, raising fears that the US could become embroiled in them; Inflation surges greater than any American under 40 had ever seen; and the Supreme Court’s rollback of federal abortion rights.
And that’s just a small fraction of the drama and chaos that Americans will experience during the 2024 campaign.
The Democrats abandoned incumbent President Biden in favor of his deputy, Vice President Harris, without consulting their voters. GOP nominee Trump bluffed his way through the primaries, campaigning several times from a New York courtroom where he was ultimately convicted of paying hush money to an adult film star — and then was shot and wounded at a rally. Went.
‘That was the craziest’
It’s no wonder that so many Americans, from first-time voters to seasoned movers and shakers in the campaign-finance world, are still trying to muster their influence.
Gideon Stein – an entrepreneur, philanthropist and major Democratic donor – is candid about the turning point. “The debate on June 27,” he says. “That was the craziest one for me.”
At the time, Biden was still seeking re-election but was struggling to generate much enthusiasm. Beset by questions about his fitness for another term, he proposed an early debate against Trump in June. To say that the strategy backfired would be an understatement. The President’s performance was so stilted and inconsistent that he could no longer contain the dam of anger around his age.
“That’s why I got engaged and used my voice as a donor,” says Stein, who was among a group of prominent Democratic funders who made it clear to the party that they would freeze donations until Unless Biden is replaced on the ballot. “We were going to continue to invest in the polling, but were not going to invest in the president because all we were seeing was that he was going to lose.”
Biden ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Harris as his successor. Looking back, Stein says it was the right move: Democrats have a better chance of keeping the White House by putting the vice president at the top of the ticket. He fulfilled his promise to donate $3.5 million to the party, some of which was distributed in the past week.
Still, the incident left Democrats with a short calendar to introduce Harris to the country — and a credibility deficit to overcome. Before Biden’s debate performance, party officials had mocked and disputed concerns about his age. “They were telling us he was bench-pressing 350 pounds, doing somersaults,” says Republican donor Eric Levin, who voted for Trump and raised about $1.8 million for down-ballot races.
‘Coming after you’
Levin agrees that the president’s return is the most memorable moment of 2024 — “that, and the assassination attempt.”
The moment of maximum drama from the GOP came on July 13, when a bullet hit Trump in the ear at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, killing an attendee. In the pictures, a bloodied former President is seen raising his fist.
For Eric Marks, 57, of Kalamazoo, Michigan, that was the most impactful event of the election. He says, “If the people coming after you know that you stand up for the truth and that they have something to hide, they will do whatever they can to silence you.” US officials have said the shooter was 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was killed by the Secret Service.
In their brief three-month contest, Trump and Harris have offered starkly different programs for the country that make clear the high stakes.
On the economy, Harris has focused on the so-called sandwich generation, those torn between raising children and caring for aging parents. He has promised to provide up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers and expand the child tax credit.
Trump says he would lower the corporate tax rate and eliminate taxes on Social Security and overtime pay, among other plans. He has also vowed to crack down on undocumented immigrants by deporting millions of people.
These messages are surfacing in campaigns across the country, and especially in a handful of states that will likely be decisive: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. A record $15.9 billion will be spent on federal elections, including House and Senate races, according to OpenSecrets.
Chris Martin, a 38-year-old black man in Sandy Springs, Georgia — a northern suburb of Atlanta — admits to election fatigue. Every second ad is political, voters are being constantly swayed by text messages from campaigns, and it’s becoming a bit much.
“It’s an us versus them thing going on and I’m fed up with it,” says Martin, highlighting Trump’s baseless claims that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio. “It’s nasty stuff, and it’s based on race and nationality. “The things they say about immigrants are terrible.”
Internationally, the Democratic nominee has taken a similar stance to Biden, supporting the US role in NATO and support for Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. She had to contend with divisions within the Democratic Party over Israel’s war in Gaza, which is putting a strain on Harris’ support in the state of Michigan, which has a large Arab-American population. Opposition to the war made headlines last spring as student protests erupted on college campuses across the United States.
Trump has questioned America’s global security commitments, continuing his first-term stance. He has vowed to reignite his trade war with China by raising tariffs on America’s closest economic rival, and has threatened to impose sweeping 10% tariffs on other countries as well.
‘Never so dramatic’
According to Rocky Raczkowski, a Republican and former member of the Michigan House of Representatives, the global backdrop is contributing to electoral tensions in both parties. “What’s happening with Ukraine, Israel and Iran is causing economic unease and turmoil around the world,” he says. “There’s also an uneasiness among Democrats, particularly progressives, that the system is working for them. Is not working. And there is anger among Republican voters who think the system is selling us out to other countries.
Whether motivated by events domestically or abroad, anger over the vote is widespread. An October 31 AP-NORC Center poll found that seven in ten Americans are either concerned or disappointed about the 2024 presidential campaign – an even higher rate than the pandemic-disrupted 2020 election.
Taryn Carthers is one of them. A 21-year-old retail worker who lives northwest of Atlanta, she hasn’t followed many campaigns — but says this is the craziest one.
“I remember being in elementary school when Obama and Romney were running for office,” she says. “It’s never been as dramatic as what we’re dealing with now.” Carthers was discouraged when Biden led the Democratic ticket, re-energized by Harris’ lead — and now she says she’s dejected again because of all the stress. “I’m excited to vote, but I’m also very excited for this election season to be over.”
In the final weeks of the campaign, both sides are trying to take advantage of their opponents’ missteps to influence remaining undecided voters, who could swing the outcome.
Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City on October 27, where his aides made racist and misogynistic comments – including calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” – which were attacked by Democrats. . But the president’s subsequent attempt to capitalize on the incident, in which Biden called Trump’s supporters trash, allowed Republicans to fuel their own outrage cycle. Even though Biden insisted he was only referring to the comedian who made the original insult, Trump took to the campaign trail in a garbage truck.
‘Alone with our thoughts’
Trump has also tried to keep the embers of his 2020 insurrection burning, saying without evidence that there was voter fraud that year — and potentially sowing distrust in the 2024 results soon to be revealed. States have strengthened election protocols to avoid disruptions.
The GOP contender, always a superstitious person, is to end his campaign in Grand Rapids, Michigan, for the third consecutive cycle — before heading to Florida to await the count. Harris will hold a rally on the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art, made famous by the movie “Rocky,” and then return to Washington. She will spend election night at her alma mater, Howard University.
In Madison, Wisconsin, Debra Zillmer has hit upon her own election strategy: Get out of town. The 70-year-old, a retired orthopedic surgeon who is voting for Harris, has started traveling with her husband in their recreational vehicle to avoid swing states. His cause will likely resonate with many Americans in the final days of a fractious campaign.
“We just have to get out there, be alone with our thoughts, not watch the news all the time,” Zillmer says. “I find it very disturbing.”
