Gyani Singh (name changed), 45, drives a yellow cab in New York. David Brooks, 63, a New Yorker at heart, is one of the brainiest columnists around. the new York TimesIf they met now, they would probably find little in common, but they would agree on the most complex question facing America today: who will win the presidential election in November.
Gianni wants Trump to win. Originally from Ludhiana, he came to the US as a teenager and did whatever it took to survive, including two local marriages. He finally got US citizenship three years ago. Today, he owns six taxis, drives one himself and drives only six hours a day, and also has a house in Queens.
“Immigrants commit crimes”
He voted for Trump in 2020 and will do so again. He says Trump kept prices low. “Today, with 8% interest, I don’t know how people survive,” he told us last week. Trump will be tough on immigration (he has threatened to deport an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants). “I know I am one of them and I have my own stories but, sir, these immigrants commit a lot of crimes. We see it every day in New York.” And, finally, “Trump will be good for India”.
Republican Brooks doesn’t want Trump to win. But in a recent column, he listed “five turbines of Trumpism” that, to his mind, send a different message.
First, Americans prefer dynamism over compassion. The fastest-growing US states – Texas, Florida, Montana – are governed by Republicans; the slowest and most stagnant states are governed by Democrats. “The red model gives you low housing costs, low taxes and business vitality. The blue model gives you high housing costs, high taxes and high inequality.” Democrats want to expand the welfare state like Europe. But voters tell pollsters that the economy and immigration are their top concerns, and Republicans score better at handling them.
Democrats, the ‘elite’ faction
Second, in a reversal of recent history, the Democrats have become the party of the college graduate elite and the Republicans the party of the working class. Brooks often writes, “The biggest divide in America today is the diploma divide.” One of his most perceptive recent columns was about how the educated elite in America uncritically expresses its contempt for the majority not with a college degree but with a college degree (“deplorables,” as Hillary Clinton denounced Trump supporters in 2016). And the “deplorables” are deeply offended that the Democrats are the party of the ruling class.
Third, less educated people are troubled by growing social and moral immorality. As Brooks wrote: “The things that derail their lives are broken relationships, infidelity, out-of-wedlock births, addiction, family conflict, and crime. When Republicans talk about immigration, crime, faith, family, and flags, they are talking about ways to maintain social and moral order. Democrats are adept at talking about economic solidarity, but not about moral and cultural solidarity.”
Fourth, there is a general climate of distrust and discontent in the US. According to Gallup and other pollsters, only 25% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country; 60% think the country is in decline and that the “system is broken”; 69% agree that “the political and economic elites don’t care about working people”, and 63% agree that “the experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me”.
Trump knows how to capitalize on unhappiness
In this mood, people are reluctant to believe Kamala Harris’s promise that a better life will be based on a more caring state. They believe that no matter what promises the elite make, in the end, it only increases their growing power. And Trump knows better than any other populist how to exploit this general discontent.
Five, Harris is different from Clinton and Obama, both of whom won two terms by sticking to a moderate centrist stance on key issues. They ensured that they were never seen as representatives of progressives in the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris allowed her progressive side to dominate the crucial decision of selecting a vice presidential candidate.
Pennsylvania is likely to be the most important swing state in this election. Harris could have chosen its popular governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate, but Shapiro was considered a moderate and Harris showed “overconfidence” by choosing the governor (Tim Walz) of a state like Minnesota, which she was winning anyway.
Of course, these are the best times for election pundits in the US, and one of the most celebrated gurus in the field is Nate Silver, the poker prodigy turned baseball-statistician turned election-predictor best known for predicting the scale of Obama’s victory in 2012 (332 electoral college votes out of 538) when it was widely seen as a close race and for calling the winner in all 50 US states. Silver is also leaning towards a Trump victory this time around, due to the Republicans’ electoral college advantage, which effectively gives the smaller of the seven swing states (such as Wisconsin) disproportionate weight in shaping the final verdict, even negating the popular vote.
What Harris will really need
Hillary Clinton received 65 million votes to Trump’s 62 million in 2016, but lost the Electoral College vote 227-304. This November, it’s not impossible that Harris suffers the same fate. According to Silver’s latest forecast, Harris would need to lead Trump by more than 3% in the popular vote to have a statistical chance of getting 270 Electoral College votes. Harris had a great five-week run between Biden’s exit and the Democratic National Convention on July 21, but the surge has slowed. According to the latest Real Clear Politics Nationwide Polling Average, Harris is only 1.8% ahead of Trump in the popular vote. More importantly, she has a lead of only 0.8 over Trump in the seven swing states.
Repeated polls have shown that the two most important issues for voters are the economy and immigration, and Trump is ahead of Harris on these issues despite the reality on the ground. Bipartisan economists have proven that Trump’s plan to build tariff walls on imports, including heavy tariffs for Chinese imports, will raise prices and hurt the poor. Trump blocked bipartisan tough immigration in Congress because it would have hurt his election rhetoric of deporting illegal immigrants, a plan that is logistically impossible and would ruin the economy.
Trump is ‘not serious’
Trump, as Harris famously labeled him, is “not serious”; to call him a narcissist is to insult that word; he is a misogynist who has little support among young women;, everyone knows he has no values and beliefs except the most convenient ones, and the media knows he uses them because he wants publicity, whether positive or negative. And yet, because he is who he is, he can profess contradictory beliefs and still not lose any support.
Abortion is an issue Harris has run on. Trump was the one who created the Supreme Court that overturned the constitutional right to abortion. She has often spoken proudly about the decision, which has led to anti-abortion laws in 22 states. One in seven voters consider abortion the third most important election issue. Given Harris’s growing lead on the issue, which is growing larger every day, she has shifted her stance. One day she spoke out against Florida’s initiative to dramatically shorten the time period for legal abortion, but in the face of backlash from supporters, quickly reaffirmed support for the initiative the next day.
Recently there have been revelations in the media in America which should have shocked MAGA followers. Atlantic A profile was made of Kashyap (Kash) Patel, a key aide to Trump’s presidency who risked the lives of American soldiers on a rescue mission in Nigeria by pretending that Nigerian officials had given USAF planes permission to enter Nigerian airspace. When Patel was exposed, he shrugged off his lie by saying “Nobody was hurt, so what does it matter?” Trump acknowledged that Kash was somewhat crazy, but said, “You need crazy people”.
Nothing matters to Trump loyalists
new york times One column pointed out that the Federal Election Commission has little oversight over how the millions of dollars allegedly raised for Trump’s re-election campaign are actually used. The money is owned by Trump’s family, and the money trail makes it a reasonable assumption that significant sums have been used to fight his many legal cases. But for Trump, the election is a tough one. DevoteeNothing matters.
Allan Lichtman is a historian who has correctly rated all recent elections, including 2016 and 2020, on a 13-point scale based on serious issues (such as how the economy has performed in the period between two elections and how the US is viewed internationally), with a candidate’s character only counting for two points. On that template, which also completely ignores election polls and surveys, Harris wins by seven points.
‘Accuser’ Harris vs. ‘bully’ Trump
It is fair to say that with less than 60 days to go, the election is very close. Much will depend on the debate on Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning in India). It may seem unbelievable, but Trump and Harris have never formally met. Never. Never. Their first face-off promises to be gladiatorial. Will prosecutor Harris put the convicted criminal and bully Trump in the dock?
White males, 40% of the electorate, overwhelmingly support Trump. If Harris stands up to or dominates Trump, she could prove the lie to Trump’s taunt that Putin and his ilk will outvote Harris. This could boost the crucial white male vote not only in Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) but, perhaps more importantly, Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral college votes.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is former managing editor of Business Standard and former executive editor of The Economic Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author