The ouster of Bangladesh’s autocratic prime minister this week sparked celebrations in Dhaka but concern in India, which had backed Sheikh Hasina to counter rival China and crush Islamist alternatives, analysts say.
This has created a diplomatic dilemma for the regional superpower.
Hasina, 76, resigned as prime minister on Monday following a student-led revolt and flew by helicopter to New Delhi to meet her old ally.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to congratulate Bangladesh’s newly-appointed interim leader Muhammad Yunus after he took power on Thursday. He said New Delhi is committed to working with Dhaka.
But China was also quick to welcome Dhaka’s new officials, saying it “attaches importance to the development” of relations.
As Hasina’s rivals take control in Dhaka, India’s support for the old government is also being affected.
“From the Bangladeshis’ perspective, India has been on the wrong side for the last few years,” said Thomas Keane, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“The Indian government did not want to see any change in Dhaka and had made it clear for years that it saw no alternative other than Hasina and the Awami League.”
‘Harmful’
Bangladesh is almost entirely surrounded by India, and their histories are deeply intertwined long before their separation from the Indian subcontinent in 1947.
But while India’s population of 1.4 billion and impressive economy outweighs Bangladesh, which has a population of 170 million, Hasina also managed to win over China.
India and China, the world’s two most populous countries, are fierce rivals competing for strategic influence across South Asia, including Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.
Hasina struck a delicate balance, garnering support from New Delhi while maintaining strong ties with Beijing.
New Delhi saw a common threat in groups that Hasina regarded as rivals and which she crushed with brute force, including the dominant Bangladesh National Party (BNP).
“India worries that any option other than Hasina and the Awami League could be detrimental to Indian interests,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center.
“In New Delhi’s view, the BNP and its allies are dangerous Islamist forces that could threaten Indian interests.”
Yunus has said he wants elections in Bangladesh “within a few months”.
The BNP is preparing to make a comeback by holding a massive rally in Dhaka this week.
In the immediate aftermath of Hasina’s fall, some businesses and homes owned by Hindus were attacked, a group perceived as her supporters by some in Muslim-majority Bangladesh.
This week, hundreds of Bangladeshi Hindus reached the Indian border demanding to cross the border.
Modi, a Hindu nationalist leader, said on Thursday he hoped “the situation will soon return to normal and the safety of Hindus and all other minority communities will be ensured.”
‘She will go back’
The fact that Hasina is taking refuge in India could prove to be a hindrance to relations between New Delhi and Dhaka.
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told Parliament that Hasina had come to India “on very short notice”, and according to Indian media, she intended to stay only for a short time.
But his reported bid to travel to Britain failed after London demanded a “full and independent UN-led investigation” into a deadly crackdown on protests in the final weeks of his rule.
The United States in the past has praised Hasina’s economic track record and seen her as a partner on priorities such as combating Islamist extremism, but Washington recently imposed visa restrictions on her over concerns about democracy.
It is not clear how long she will now stay in India, or where she will go next.
He has been held in a secret safe house since his arrival at a military airbase near New Delhi and has not spoken to publicly.
Her daughter Saima Wazed said she was very sad as she could not see her mother.
“I do want to meet my mother but I don’t want to compromise her whereabouts in any way,” Wazed, the World Health Organisation’s South-East Asia chief, said in a post on social media platform X.
Her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy told the Times of India newspaper that his mother still hopes to contest for political office.
She said, “As soon as the interim government decides to hold elections, she will return to Bangladesh.”
‘Earned hostility’
Indian media has warned of a “difficult diplomatic challenge” facing the country.
“New Delhi must act proactively to limit the damage and ensure that the high stakes in the relationship remain secure,” the Indian Express newspaper warned. “This could include some near-term setbacks.”
But Bangladesh’s new leader Yunus has offered a peace proposal.
“Although some countries, such as India, supported the ousted prime minister and incurred the hostility of the Bangladeshi people as a result, there will be many opportunities to heal such rifts,” Yunus wrote in The Economist shortly before returning to Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, Crisis Group’s Keane said he believed the two countries would put the past aside for a pragmatic relationship.
“India is Bangladesh’s most important international partner and there’s no reason they can’t find a way to move forward,” Keane said.
“Economic forces will force them to work together.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
