The deadly rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has raised concerns that Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah could be embroiled in a full-scale war – something they have both previously wanted to avoid but have also said they are ready for.
Israel said on Sunday it would strike hard at Hezbollah as it accused it of killing 12 children and teenagers in a rocket attack on a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah has denied any responsibility for the attack on Majdal Shams, the deadliest attack in Israel or Israeli-occupied territory since Hamas launched the war in Gaza on October 7.
The background to the hostility between Israel and Hezbollah is as follows:
Why are they fighting?
Hezbollah began shelling Israel on October 8, a day after Palestinian group Hamas attacked communities in southern Israel and sparked the Gaza war.
Hamas’ ally Hezbollah says its attacks are aimed at supporting Palestinians affected by Israeli bombing in Gaza.
The Gaza war has attracted Iran-backed operatives across the region. Hezbollah is widely considered the most powerful member of the Iran-backed network known as the Axis of Resistance.
Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will not stop its attacks on Israel until a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza.
Although the conflict is linked to Gaza, it has its own dynamics.
Israel and Hezbollah have fought several wars.
This event was last held in 2006.
Israel has long regarded Hezbollah as the greatest threat to its borders and is deeply concerned by its growing arsenal and foothold in Syria.
Hezbollah’s ideology is primarily defined by its conflict with Israel. It was founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to fight Israeli forces, which invaded Lebanon that year, and waged a guerrilla war for several years, forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000.
Hezbollah regards Israel as an illegal state established on Palestinian land and wants to see it abolished.
What impact has it had so far?
The current conflict has already caused damage to both sides.
Thousands of people on both sides of the border have been forced to flee their homes. Israeli airstrikes have bombed Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and also attacked the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.
Israel has occasionally attacked other locations, notably killing a senior Hamas commander in Beirut on January 2.
Israeli strikes have killed about 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including doctors, children and journalists, according to a Reuters tally of death tolls released by security and medical sources and Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said after Saturday’s attack that the number of civilians killed in Hezbollah attacks since October had risen to 23, including at least 17 soldiers. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for Saturday’s attack.
The displacement of so many Israelis is a major political issue in Israel. Officials had hoped they would be able to return home for the school year that begins on September 1, but that seems unlikely as the impasse continues.
What could be worse than this?
A lot. Despite the ferocity of these hostilities, it is still seen as a relatively limited conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in December that Beirut would turn into “Gaza” if Hezbollah launched a wider war.
Hezbollah has previously indicated it does not seek to escalate the conflict, saying it is prepared to fight any war imposed upon it, and warning that it has so far used only a small portion of its capabilities.
Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassim said in an interview with Al Jazeera in June that any Israeli move to escalate the conflict would result in “destruction, destruction and displacement” in Israel.
Past wars have caused enormous damage.
In 2006, Israeli attacks razed large areas of Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, destroyed Beirut airport, and damaged roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Nearly 1 million people in Lebanon fled their homes.
In Israel, 300,000 people were forced to flee their homes to escape Hezbollah rockets and approximately 2,000 homes were destroyed.
Hezbollah has a much larger arsenal than it did in 2006, including rockets that it says can strike all parts of Israel.
Since October it has demonstrated advances in its weapons, shooting down Israeli drones, launching its own explosive drones into Israel, and firing more sophisticated guided missiles.
Israeli troops have invaded Lebanon several times in the past, reaching as far as Beirut in 1982, with the aim of crushing Lebanon-based Palestinian guerrillas.
Can the increase be avoided?
Much will depend on what happens in Gaza, where efforts to agree a ceasefire and the return of Israeli hostages have failed. A ceasefire there could help ease tensions in southern Lebanon more quickly.
The United States, which considers Hezbollah a terrorist group, has been at the center of diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating the conflict.
Hezbollah has signaled its openness to a deal that benefits Lebanon, but has said no discussions can take place until Israel stops its offensive on Gaza.
Israel has also said it would prefer a diplomatic settlement that would restore security in the north, but said it was prepared to use a military strike to achieve the same goal.
Amos Hochstein, the US official at the center of diplomatic contacts, brokered an unexpected diplomatic agreement in 2022 over a disputed maritime border between Lebanon and Israel.
Hochstein said on May 30 that he did not expect peace between Hezbollah and Israel, but that some agreements could eliminate some of the motivation for the conflict and establish a recognized border between Lebanon and Israel.
The French proposal handed to Beirut in February included that elite Hezbollah fighters withdraw 10 km (6 miles) from the border and that talks be held to resolve disputes on the land border.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
