The ceasefire between the US and Iran has eased fears of a wider conflict and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices lower. However, according to an analyst cited by Reuters, the ceasefire may be tactical rather than permanent. The underlying disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, regional influence, and sanctions remain unresolved.Both sides have agreed to 60 days of talks, but there is no sign of consensus. For now, there is relief for the markets, but it may also be temporary.
Why is the ceasefire on hold?
The analysis found that the biggest reason for the ceasefire is American politics. With the midterm elections in November, the Trump administration cannot afford to raise gasoline prices. Voters were already unhappy with inflation and the war had made it even worse. Pump prices reached nearly $4.50 per gallon during the conflict. They have since fallen to around $3.90, but any new disruption could reverse this.Washington therefore has a strong incentive to keep the strait open and avoid another energy shock. This means engaging with Iran, even if the terms are not ideal.Iran knows this and can take advantage of it. Only by threatening the strait can oil prices be increased without closing it. This gives Tehran an advantage it did not have before the war.
What will happen after the US elections?
If Democrats take back the House, and they are currently projected to do so, Trump may face a more hostile Congress. The domestic impasse could push him toward victory in foreign policy, where he has more room to act.Trump has already faced criticism for the deal, which many consider favorable to Iran. If negotiations stall by autumn, he may decide that military pressure is more attractive than diplomacy.Iran may have the upper hand right now, but analysts fear how this could change after the elections are over.
political rift in the house
According to a New York Times analysis, the Iran war has also exposed deep divisions within both US political parties. Among Democrats, two outgoing House members in New York lost primary challenges from candidates who had cast them as inadequate critics of Israel. The rise of anti-war progressives is forcing the party to think how far it can go without alienating liberal and Jewish voters.Among Republicans, the fractures are different but no less real. Isolationists who supported Trump’s promise to avoid foreign wars feel betrayed by his intervention in Iran. Meanwhile, party supporters are angry that the administration is now negotiating with Tehran without achieving its goal of weakening Iran’s military or toppling its regime.According to a New York Times poll, 53 percent of Republican voters under 45 disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, while 75 percent of older Republicans approve. High-profile conservatives such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly have publicly broken with the party over the war, and former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene recently left the Republican Party, citing opposition to the conflict.
Iran’s real weapon
Iran does not need to close the strait to harm the global economy. It just needs to make traders think it can happen. That risk premium could drive up oil prices, shipping costs and even fertilizer prices. According to the analysis, this is the real power in an election year.But if no agreement is reached by the fall, Iran’s hold could weaken. And after the election Trump, freed from some political constraints, may decide to strike again.The Iran war may have stopped, but it is not over. The next few months will decide whether this ceasefire will become a permanent agreement or simply a pause before the next round.The biggest risk is not that there will be another war next week. It is a cycle of recurring crises, diplomacy, then escalation, then diplomacy again, that keeps markets volatile and the global economy on edge.