US President Donald Trump has sought help from allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But even if it can form a large coalition, ending the Iran blockade may prove very difficult.Iran is located on one side of the narrow strait and has responded to the US-Israeli attack by using drones, missiles and mines to render the vital waterway unsafe.Why cut the strait now?The threat to the strait had been expressed many times before, when a commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned in 2011 that cutting the strait would be “easier than drinking a glass of water”. Analysts have always considered closing the strait as a last resort because the move has the potential for retaliation against its own energy sector. The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader has changed that equation. Iranian officials describe the war as existential.
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Why is it so difficult to secure?The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage of water between Iran and Oman. According to shipping broker SSY Global, shipping lanes are only two nautical miles wide and ships must turn in front of Iranian islands and a mountainous coast that provides cover to Iranian forces. Iran’s conventional navy has been largely destroyed, but the IRGC still has plenty of options, including fast-attack craft, mini-submarines, mines and even explosives-laden jet skis, said Tom Sharp, a retired Royal Navy commander. According to the Center for Information Resilience, a research group, Tehran has the capacity to produce about 10,000 drones per month.Sharp said it would be possible to escort three or four ships a day through the strait using seven or eight destroyers providing air cover, but doing so for months would require more resources. Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Middle East and North African Studies, said even if Iran’s ability to deploy ballistic missiles, drones and floating mines was destroyed, ships would still face a threat from suicide missions.
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What does Trump want?Trump said Sunday he expected many countries to send warships and demanded they do so, adding that his administration was in contact with seven countries for help. The move came a week after he ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for shipping companies.What are other chokepoints?Yemen’s Houthis, a group allied with Iran but with little military arsenal, have blocked most traffic passing through the Red Sea for more than two years despite US and EU naval efforts. Most shipping companies still use the much longer route via the southern tip of Africa. EU-led forces have been more successful in countering piracy off the coast of Somalia, but against far less well-equipped forces than the IRGC.Are there any alternatives?The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have tried to find ways to bypass the strait by building more oil pipelines. But they are not currently operational and the 2019 attack on an east-west Saudi pipeline by the Houthi militia showed that even those options were weak. (This is a Reuters story)