The United Kingdom is set to head to the polls on July 4, which are likely to favour Labour Party leader Keir Starmer. While Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is working hard to keep his Conservative Party in power, voter fatigue stemming from 14 years of Tory rule is showing up in the projected numbers.
Keir Starmer is projected to win a historic victory in the upcoming general election. In contrast, the Conservative Party may get the lowest number of seats in nearly two centuries. The Liberal Democrats are also likely to perform their best ever.
YouGov Predictions
According to a recent survey and analysis by YouGov, the Labour Party could get between 422 and 456 seats, one of the largest majorities in British political history.
However, the Conservatives face a challenging future, with forecasts ranging from 72 to 140 seats, well below their current figures.
According to the betting, Keir Starmer is the favourite to be the next Prime Minister, while Rishi Sunak is less likely to do so.
Ipsos Predictions
The Labour Party is headed for a historic victory with 453 seats. However, the Conservative Party may suffer a crushing defeat, which is likely to get 115 seats according to Ipsos’ initial MRP model of the campaign. If it succeeds, Mr Starmer’s party will return to power after 14 years.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15 seats, and the Greens and Reform UK three each.
How accurate are the predictions?
The accuracy of MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) polls, which combine polling data with census-type information, has improved in recent years, but remains subject to variability and uncertainty. However, tactical voting, undecided voters, and shifts in public opinion can affect the final numbers.
Pollsters themselves acknowledge the limitations of their models and the possibility of error. Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analysis, said polling is an uncertain science, and Chris Hanretty, a professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, said models can only work with the available data and cannot capture all the complexities of human behavior, according to The Guardian.
Public reception of some policies
Policies that have resonated with the British public include pledges from both Labour and the Conservatives not to increase National Insurance, VAT or Income Tax. The Conservative triple lock on pensions also received strong support, with 73% of respondents voting in favour. Labour’s plans to introduce VAT on private schools and create a publicly owned renewable energy provider have also been well received, receiving 61% and 74% support respectively.
There has also been opposition to some policies. The Conservative national service pledge has been unpopular, with 52% of respondents opposing it. Labour’s plan to raise the voting age to 16 has also been opposed, with 60% of respondents opposing it.
Will this possibility remain or will there be a twist in the tale on election day? Only time will tell.