The biggest question in the minds of our foreign policy makers and commentators is what to expect from the second term of US President Donald Trump with respect to our interests. Trump’s unpredictability is a matter of concern for all countries, whether allies, friends or adversaries. However, our experience with Trump’s first term leads us to believe that his second presidency will generally see continued progress in our relations, the foundation of which has been laid during previous Republican and Democratic presidencies over the past few decades.
Due to this, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s comments will make it clear that some countries may be nervous about Trump returning to power, but India is not. Some outside commentators believe that Trump’s re-election has been greeted with enthusiasm in India because they see him as a kindred spirit to Modi, both of whom are right-wing ideological conservatives. This is an echo of the Modi-criticism propagated in western progressive, leftist, human rights, minority rights circles. There is no doubt that Modi had a very good personal relationship with Trump, but he also had a very good relationship with Biden, and before that with Obama. Just as elements of Biden and Obama’s policies were problematic for India, aspects of Trump’s policies were also problematic for India.
Relief, not excitement
At the policy-making level and among sensible commentators, there is no such “enthusiasm”. There may be some comfort in the fact that the Trump administration will stay away from some of the issues on which the Democrats have angered us. On these issues, there was a certain degree of political rapprochement between the opposition and Democratic circles in India, even inviting US interference in our internal affairs. This will still be the undercurrent in India-US relations as the democratic ecosystem will remain active in the media, academia, think tanks, “progressive” Congress circles, etc. But it will not be a part of the government narrative like before.
However there is a caveat. The annual reports on human rights, religious freedom, etc. issued by the US State Department are mandated by the US Congress, and will include general attacks against India. One can hope that unlike Blinken who, unprecedentedly, named India twice while presenting the report, his successor is unlikely to do the same. But we must keep in mind that Christian evangelists are among those who strongly support Trump and serve as pressure points within the administration on issues related to Christian “persecution”, the conversion issue and the ban on NGOs in India. Can do.
What do the new appointments mean for India?
There is great interest globally in the appointments Trump makes to key positions in his administration. India has reason to be satisfied with the nominations of Mark Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor. Rubio is a strong supporter of stronger defense, space and technology ties with India. He introduced the US-India Defense Cooperation Act in the Senate in July 2024, which aims to boost cooperation in these areas with India, besides seeking exemption from the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act) law and American aid to Pakistan has to be restricted. , As a supporter of China, he also sees India as a counterbalance to China.
Mike Waltz is the Republican co-chair of the India Caucus, which means he has an understanding of India-related issues, is receptive to India’s concerns, has been a supporter of strong US-India relations, and is well connected . Indian diaspora. He believes that the US-India partnership is the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century. One can assume that like Jake Sullivan, he will continue to lead the iCET (Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies) from the US side, and our National Security Advisor (NSA), Ajit Doval, will be his counterpart. This is important.
Both are pro-China, which means the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy will continue to receive strong support from the White House and the State Department. Kurt Campbell, who was previously in Biden’s White House and later appointed as Deputy Secretary of State at the State Department, was a strong supporter of the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy. He will likely leave his post, but both Rubio and Waltz will ensure that this part of India-US strategic cooperation, which also includes the China challenge, continues uninterrupted.
Caution is paramount
India will host the next Quad summit in 2025, which means Trump should visit India much earlier in his tenure—a bonus as the bureaucracies of both countries will be motivated to make the visit significant in content and give India a direction . -America’s relations also at the bilateral level.
However, we need to be careful that we are not led to support the Trump administration’s aggression on China, beyond a certain point. Our relations with Beijing will remain a major challenge for us strategically, even though there have been some positive developments on the border recently. This may reduce tensions to some extent, but not eliminate them, as Chinese policies will remain unpredictable. We will need rescue strategies, for which the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy are indispensable. We need to keep in mind our stake in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as part of maintaining a balance in our foreign policy and maintaining some cards to play while maintaining our strategic autonomy.
Trump, China and Russia
We also need to keep in mind that there are inherent contradictions in US policy towards China and Trump’s approach is not free from them. Trump no longer wants to get involved in wars abroad, which means he would like to use diplomatic and economic means to deal with China’s expansionism and its threat to American global superiority. It remains to be seen how much China can and will exploit this contradiction to assert itself in the Western Pacific and beyond, with its economic power, which inevitably translates into political influence.
Trump’s inclination to resolve the Ukraine conflict would potentially ease tensions, benefiting India and the global South. It remains to be seen whether he succeeds, or, if he is rejected, tries to put more pressure on Russia. If direct talks start with America and Russia, then the pressure on Modi to become a mediator between Russia and Ukraine and find some common ground will end. Zelensky’s latest ‘victory plan’ to establish peace would also be redundant. Trump and his nominees for the State Department, NSA, and Pentagon are extremely pro-Israel, and this does not bode well for peace in West Asia. Trump’s anti-Iran stance is reassuring neither for the region nor for India.
financial pain point
On the economic side, we were under pressure during Trump’s first term when the US took us out of the Generalized Preference Scheme (GSP) and imposed tariffs on our steel and aluminum exports to the US. During his campaign, he has referred to India as a “tariff king” and a ‘trade abuser’, even as he has spoken very warmly of Modi personally. He has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on sugar exports to the US and 10-20% on imports from other countries. Many in Indian economic circles believe that we can actually handle a 10% tariff, and with much higher import duties on China, we may even benefit in some sectors. There are concerns that Trump could crack down on H1B visas, stronger controls on technology transfers from the US could impact us too, and Trump’s determination to encourage US corporations to invest in the US and create jobs there. The discussion on shoring may change. or flexible supply chains, etc.
The nomination of US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Trump’s first term and dealing with such a person was difficult for India, defining US trade policy in the President’s second term will be problematic on all sides. He is actually a trade hawk who wants to aggressively use American economic power to protect the country’s interests, as he believes, to the extent of ruining the World Trade Organization (WTO), if he could. Is.
Confidence in Modi-Trump coordination
Despite these difficulties, India has the advantage of personal rapport between Modi and Trump and potential political support in the US Congress, at the State Department and at the level of National Security Advisor, to counter unfair trade pressures. Even on the US side, they have to take into account the totality of US long-term interests in India to formulate a balanced policy approach.
Ultimately, we can hope that the Biden administration’s approach on the Nijjar and Pannun cases is more prudent rather than unquestioningly supporting Trudeau, giving free rein to talking India down and threatening Pannun by demanding satisfaction and accountability. Will go. India is struggling with terrorism, death threats etc. Trump has called Trudeau ‘weak’, ‘dishonest’ and ‘hypocritical’. This has raised some hopes that Trudeau will become less provocative. However, one must keep in mind that since the Pannun case is before the courts, information about the proceedings will become news which will be picked up by anti-India elements abroad and which will be highlighted by our press.
Interesting times ahead.
(Kanwal Sibal was the Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Türkiye, Egypt, France and Russia and Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
