Donald Trump entered the fray as president-elect, devoting his first week to assembling his team. At the beginning of his second week in office, he announced his intention to declare a national emergency over border security on Truth Social. His plan includes suggestions that he could deploy the National Guard to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants — a bold move that underscores his administration’s priorities. Still, it is unclear how this massive undertaking will actually be managed.
‘Trumpworld’, as many are calling it, promises to cleanse the land of its estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants. “America First” policies will be the mantra of this world. It will be a world where the work on Make America Great Again (MAGA) begins and, of course, a world where the revival of radical conservative values is long overdue. The MAGA campaign, as envisioned by Trumpworld and its far-right champions, pledges to deport all undocumented immigrants. This should be a matter of concern for Indians too, given that according to the Pew Research Center, of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US, about 7,25,000 are from India. This makes them the third largest group after Mexico and El Salvador.
Indians in America: A story of extremes
Indian immigrants to the US are often celebrated for contributing to the success of Silicon Valley, but the quieter contributions of thousands of undocumented Indians are rarely mentioned – largely because they are living in the country illegally. . They constitute about 6% of the total undocumented immigrants in the country. Overall, their population is 2.71 million-strong. The total number of Indian immigrants, both legal and illegal, is second only to Mexico (4.5 million). Now that Trump is back in the White House, uncertainty looms for many of these Indian immigrants, most of whom are young and established in their jobs.
Can lying turn into policy?
Tom Homan will be in charge of America’s borders after Trump’s inauguration in January. A former police officer and former director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), a federal agency responsible for enforcing immigration laws within the US, Homan is known for his radical rhetoric. At the Republican National Convention this year, he minced no words when warning undocumented immigrants: “You better start packing right now.”
In addition to Homan’s appointment as border czar, Trump has also nominated Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy. Both positions reinforce his campaign promise to be extremely tough on immigration and deport all illegal immigrants. Homan will oversee US borders and deportations, among other things, while Miller, best known for his role in shaping Trump’s immigration stance during his first term, will focus on enforcing the administration’s mass deportation promises. do. It has been announced that South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will serve as Secretary of Homeland Security, coordinating with Homan and Miller on border security initiatives.
However, the obstacles to actually implementing Trump’s grand plan are staggering. Fixing the system is as challenging as the rhetoric is bold.
trace the origin
To deport an undocumented person or passport, border agencies must first establish beyond doubt which country the potentially deported person comes from. Let me draw a parallel here. India faces a similar problem with respect to many Nigerian immigrants. Once, an angry Javed Ahmed, a former Mumbai policeman and Maharashtra police chief, told me how it was almost impossible to send Nigerians who had overstayed their welcome back to their country. Why? Because once in India, they will destroy their passports and all other national IDs so that the authorities cannot establish their Nigerian history. Until their origin is established, the Nigerian government has the right to refuse to accept them.
Therefore, if the US government wants to deport an undocumented Indian back to India, it will not be easy. The US has repatriation agreements with Mexico and some Central American countries, but these agreements primarily focus on recent border crossers, not long-term undocumented immigrants. For those who have lived in the US for 10 years or more, removal procedures become complicated. Documentation, verification of citizenship, and obtaining travel documents can be difficult. Additionally, removal of long-term residents may separate families, and returnees may face challenges reintegrating into their country of origin. The American government itself has also accepted these difficulties.
lack of manpower
Another challenge is the shortage of manpower. Immigration enforcement agencies are weak, which partly explains why even during Trump’s first term, the average annual deportation rate was 350,000 – a figure that is lower than the Obama years, in which the same year 432,000 deportations were observed. Ironically, it was Obama who appointed Tom Homan to oversee these deportations.
Trump’s supporters have floated the idea of involving the National Guard, one of the oldest elements of the U.S. armed forces, to solve the manpower shortage, but experts such as Gene Lantz Reese of the Gould School of Law warn that this would May have to face legal challenges. The Supreme Court has made it clear that the President cannot unilaterally deploy the military for immigration enforcement. An attempt to use the Insurrection Act of 1807, a federal law that authorizes the President to request assistance from state authorities or deploy the military to suppress a domestic insurrection when national security is threatened, would likely be countered by the same legal wall Will collide.
legal impasse
As highlighted by immigration experts, the lack of judicial and detention capacity is also a challenge. The system is already under pressure, with a staggering backlog of 3.7 million pending immigration cases (Syracuse University data). Meanwhile, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) currently detains a total of 37,000 people – not enough to handle Trump’s mass deportation plans. Expanding this capacity will not be cheap and taxpayers will almost certainly be handed the bill.
budgetary constraints
It has been claimed that removing all 11 million unauthorized immigrants would cost approximately $300 billion. However, Trump has already said cost is not an issue. But cost is not the only consideration. According to researchers, of the 11 million undocumented immigrants, about 1 million run their own businesses and pay $100 billion in taxes. In states like California and Texas, participation of undocumented workers is significant, in sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, and hospitality. Riess offers a stark reality check: “You could put 11 million people into removal proceedings, but it would take years to actually deport them from the United States.” Without significant legal changes — and without congressional action to support them — Riess sees mass deportations as little more than a pipe dream.
history of prejudice
America, often called “the country of immigrants”, was built on several waves of immigration in the early centuries, mostly from Europe. Just to give perspective, in the 17th century when European settlers were busy driving the natives off their lands and trying to make homes for themselves in the New World, the Mughal and Ottoman empires were at their peak – prosperity, fine art Were on display and breathtaking architecture. After several centuries of mostly white European migration, America developed into a New World, and eventually as a world power in the 20th century.
Anti-immigration sentiments began to increase in the late 19th and early 20th centuries due to changes in the composition of the immigrant population. At first immigrants, primarily from Northern and Western Europe, were openly welcomed, but the influx of Africans, Chinese, and others gave rise to xenophobia and nativism. Racial prejudices were actually codified into laws by the US. For example, the Immigration Act of 1917 created a “forbidden zone” excluding immigrants from most of Asia. In 1924, the Johnson–Reed Act further strengthened discrimination by establishing quotas based on origin, favoring Northern and Western Europeans and completely excluding Asians. White Europeans were generally considered more desirable and were more easily granted citizenship. But black, Asian, and Latino immigrants faced complete exclusion, segregation, and legal barriers. For example, the Naturalization Act of 1790 limited citizenship to “free white persons”—a restriction that was not lifted until the mid-20th century. Anti-immigrant sentiment wasn’t just about numbers – it reflected deep-rooted concerns over race, culture and the fear of being overwhelmed.
attainable goals
Even with good intentions and a commitment to walking the talk, it will not be easy for Trump’s new immigration team to surpass Obama’s peak of 432,000 deportations per year. Even if they manage the ambitious number of half a million annually – without any legal or logistical barriers – it will still take 22 years to clear the existing backlog of undocumented immigrants. However, experts believe Trump may focus more on deporting recently arrived people whose records are easier to trace.
However, with Trump legally unable to run for re-election in 2028, the bigger question arises: Who will be held accountable if this bold promise is not fulfilled?
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
