Opinion: Modi 3.0 leaves nothing to chance for Southeast Asia

As India enters its third term under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Southeast Asia has become the center of its foreign policy. The region plays a key role in the Indo-Pacific region and has become important for India’s strategic, economic and diplomatic interests.

Recent high-level meetings, such as Modi’s visit to Singapore and Brunei in early September, the articulation of India’s position on the South China Sea by External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, and the visits of the Prime Ministers of Vietnam and Malaysia to India, signal the continued strategic importance of Southeast Asia to India’s foreign policy.

From ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’

The central government’s “Act East Policy”, which evolved from the previous “Look East Policy”, signifies a more active engagement with Southeast Asian countries. Under Modi’s leadership, this policy has become the cornerstone of India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which promotes a free, open, inclusive and rules-based order.

The region’s strategic importance is underscored by its geographical proximity to India and its role as a gateway to the South China Sea, a vital maritime corridor for global trade. Southeast Asia is a key part of the geopolitical framework of the Indo-Pacific, and India’s growing ties with the region are seen as a counterbalance to China’s growing and often predatory influence. In Modi 3.0, India aims to consolidate its position as a reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific, with Southeast Asia a key element of this strategy.

New Delhi has placed special emphasis on fostering closer ties with member countries of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Trade between India and ASEAN has grown steadily in recent years, with bilateral trade set to exceed $100 billion in 2023. Apart from economic cooperation, India’s strategic interests in the region have also deepened.

Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam

In Singapore, Modi’s talks with newly elected Prime Minister Lawrence Wong resulted in key agreements, particularly in the semiconductor sector, besides health, skills and digital security. The “India-Singapore Semiconductor Ecosystem Partnership” signed during the visit aims to facilitate the entry of Singaporean companies into India. The partnership is integral to New Delhi’s ambitions to become a global semiconductor hub by leveraging complementary strengths to build resilience in the global chip supply chain. In parallel, Modi’s visit to Brunei, a strategically located nation in the South China Sea, marked a significant moment in India’s Act East policy and Indo-Pacific vision. It was the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister and coincided with the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

In Modi 3.0, Vietnam has emerged as one of India’s most important Southeast Asian partners. Both countries share concerns over China’s growing aggression in the South China Sea, where both India and Vietnam have vested interests in oil exploration and freedom of navigation. Discussions on defence cooperation, trade and energy security marked Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s visit to India. Vietnam plays a key role in India’s Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific strategy, strengthening their naval ties and defence cooperation. India and Vietnam have signed several agreements on defence, maritime security and energy and economic cooperation. Both countries are committed to upholding international law in the South China Sea, further aligning their strategic interests. Bilateral relations have also expanded into renewable energy, IT and infrastructure development, with India playing a key role in Vietnam’s development plans.

Reestablishing relations with Malaysia

Similarly, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s visit to India highlighted a much-needed change in bilateral ties after a thaw in relations before 2022. Malaysia’s importance to India stems from its strategic location on key sea lanes in the Indo-Pacific and its role as a key trading partner. During Anwar’s visit, the two leaders discussed enhancing economic cooperation, particularly in technology, renewable energy, and digital connectivity. Malaysia’s support for India’s Act East policy and its role in ASEAN make it a valuable partner for India as it seeks to expand its presence in Southeast Asia.

South China Sea question

Finally, India’s position on the South China Sea has changed significantly in the last few years, changing from a cautious, neutral stance to one that has clearly expressed its support for the Philippines’ sovereign maritime territorial claims, freedom of navigation and exploitation of marine resources in accordance with international law. This aligns India with Southeast Asian countries against China’s unilateral actions, while also serving India’s strategic interests by ensuring freedom of navigation and strengthening regional security. India’s nuanced stance, driven by its own territorial tensions along its northern land border with China, underscores its intent to prevent unilateral and unlawful advances.

Modi 3.0 represents a significant shift in India’s engagement with Southeast Asia, driven by geopolitical imperatives and economic interests. The Modi administration has steadily deepened the range and scope of its ties with Southeast Asian countries, and his third consecutive term is likely to further extend the gains of the last ten years.

(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President for Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation, and Professor of International Relations at King’s College London. Pratnasree Basu is Associate Fellow for Indo-Pacific at the Observer Research Foundation.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author

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