For more than a year, all eyes have been on Iran. Naturally, the first BRICS summit with Tehran’s membership is bound to generate speculation about what the potential new world order would look like. Domestically, there is a need to examine India’s bilateral relations with a country that appears strongly anti-Western in its outlook.
Iran and India are in the same boat, at least for the moment: about the West’s rebuke. The temptation to form a united front against Western hegemony in the security sector may be greater on both sides. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held bilateral talks with new Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, focusing on strategic cooperation in the Middle East and beyond.
Global Grouping vs. Realpolitik
One can debate endlessly whether multilateral global groupings make a difference in real politics, domestically or internationally, without getting any closer to any solution. However, signaling remains important. For starters, the West is already perceiving the summit as Russia’s show of power. Headlines such as ‘Putin gathers allies’ and ‘Putin hosts global South leaders at BRICS summit, aims to balance Western clout’ in Western media outlets highlight apprehension.
A complex interplay of sectarian interests and regional dynamics shapes Iran’s geopolitical strategy. It is in the direct line of fire because of Israel’s uncontrolled belligerence. The reality after October 7 is even more dire for Tehran, already under economic pressure due to 2011 UN sanctions. Iran blames America for almost all its problems. As such, during the last summit, former President Ebrahim Raisi had hailed Iran’s proposed BRICS membership as one of the ways to catch up with the US and the West at large. “Iran’s membership in this group is a protest against American unilateralism.”
India needs to define its position
Russia and China share this sentiment of BRICS emerging as a counterbalance to the West. But what about India? India has appreciated and supported Iran’s presence in BRICS, but will New Delhi also support Tehran’s repressive domestic policies in the name of this cooperative alliance?
India has not stopped buying oil from Iran despite sanctions and disapproving comments from the West. Nevertheless, bilateral trade between the two countries has declined by 26% in a year. Geo-economics informs Iranian perceptions of the bloc as an important driver. Iran aims to ensure increased volumes of oil and non-oil exports to fellow BRICS members bypassing the dollar.
Like Russia, Iran is also engaged in a high-risk conflict with the West. China also does not enjoy a particularly friendly status. Therefore, New Delhi’s balancing act is sure to be tested in the near future on a number of thorny issues, including the Israel-Palestine issue.
In a way, India has been at the forefront. In the last UN General Assembly vote on the resolution to end Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories, India, along with newcomer Ethiopia, was the only founding BRICS country to abstain.
During the Modi-Pezeshkian bilateral, India was urged to play a more significant role in the Middle East peace process. But what are New Delhi’s realistic options? Calling for peace does not bring peace; Stakeholders do arm-twisting.
A tricky question for New Delhi
Unanimous consent is mandatory for any decision of BRICS. In that sense, it is even trickier than the domestic coalition politics that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been stuck in after a decade. For example, what would be India’s stance if Iran wants to revive its nuclear plan? India’s past disputes with the West over its nuclear program could trigger another round of strategic unpleasantness over New Delhi’s stance.
India has a long-term policy of strategic autonomy, and the complexity of its relations with the West is everlasting. The question is only of degree. Any overture against the West, real or perceived, needs to clearly define the scope of India’s support to its alliance partners, even if it is not announced. While BRICS has achieved little in a tangible way over the past 15 years, the symbolism of the grouping could have consequences for India as ongoing conflicts spill over into the future and new challenges emerge around them.
On the other hand, the internal dynamics of the expanded BRICS is going to pose another challenge. BRICS, little more than an ad hoc grouping with diverse challenges and interests, has miles to go before it emerges as a force to be reckoned with in alliances like the G7 or the Five Eyes, where members at least pursue a common minimum programme. Are capable of increasing. ,
(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based writer and academic.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author