Will Sensex, Nifty extend losses on Monday? Iran War Peace Talks, 4 Factors Will Decide Dalal Street Next Week

Indian stock markets tumbled on Thursday, with the Sensex and Nifty cracking more than 0.7%, as oil prices hit historic highs and the rupee hit an all-time low, among other factors that dampened investor sentiment. The stock market was closed on Friday due to Maharashtra Day.

Here are 5 factors that will drive the Indian stock market next week:

Iran war not peace talks?
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he was not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal for talks on the ongoing conflict, while Iran’s foreign minister signaled that Tehran was open to diplomacy if the United States changed its approach.

Trump’s comments suggest the stalemate in the two-month-old conflict is likely to continue, even as he seeks to end a war that has been largely unpopular with Americans.

He said during a speech in Florida on Friday that the United States would not end its confrontation with Iran prematurely, warning against returning to face the same issue again in a few years.

He reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and would be under increasing pressure to break Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that has disrupted nearly 20% of global oil and gas flows amid the ongoing conflict.

Oil above $100

Crude oil futures fell sharply on Friday after Iran signaled a proposal to resume talks with the US, although prices remained on track for weekly gains as Tehran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy maintained restrictions on Iranian crude exports.

Brent crude for July settled down $2.23, or 2.02%, at $108.17 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down $3.13, or 2.98%, at $101.94.

Nuwama Institutional Equities noted that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 million barrels per day pass, could push crude oil prices into the $110–$150 range.

Meanwhile, a Hetong Futures note cited by Reuters said the ongoing ceasefire phase could set the stage for further conflict. It added that if US-Iran talks fail to show meaningful progress by the end of April and tensions rise again, oil prices could climb to fresh highs for the year.

Key Q4 earnings
Kotak Mahindra Bank and FMCG giant DMart on Saturday announced their March quarter earnings. Avenue Supermart, operator of DMart, on Saturday reported a profit of Rs. 656.6 crore posted a net profit, up from Rs. 550.90 crore representing a jump of 19%. Net profit is attributable to the equity holders of the company.

Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday reported a profit of Rs. 4,026.55 crore in net profit, up from Rs. 3,552 crores representing a jump of 13.3%.

Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 8.1% YoY to Rs. 7,876 crore as against Rs. 7,284 crores.

Rupee is at a record low
The Indian rupee on Thursday fell to Rs. A record low of 95.33 was tumbled as a sharp rally in crude oil prices made investors increasingly concerned about economic risks to the 2022 highs. Oil’s surge to $125 and above has raised fears over India’s inflation-growth balance, given its reliance on energy imports, and has also weighed on capital inflows.

Immediate Resistance Rs. 95– placed at Rs 95.20; A sustained breakout above this range could push the rupee to fresh all-time lows. On the downside, Rs. 94.50 acts as immediate support, while Rs. 94.30 – Rs. 94 marks a strong support zone in case of near-term consolidation.

The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, supported by continued dollar demand, although any easing in geopolitical tensions could provide short-term stability to the rupee.

Chart shows nervousness
The Nifty 50 continues to trade cautiously, hovering around the 24,000-24,100 zone after a mild recovery. Immediate resistance is seen in the 24,300-24,400 range, which remains a strong supply zone. A sustained move above this band is required to revive momentum towards 24,600-24,800 levels.

On the downside, 23,800 is a crucial support, a break below this level potentially opens the way towards 23,600–23,400, an area likely to act as a demand zone. Momentum indicators are currently neutral to slightly weak, reflecting a lack of strong confidence in the near term, said Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money.

Amid continued global uncertainties and mixed domestic signals, investors are advised to adopt a cautious and selective approach. While key sectors such as banking and IT may continue to underperform in the near term, select segments and themes are likely to provide support and generate opportunities, said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Religare Broking.

Traders must remain agile, avoid excessive leverage and maintain disciplined risk management. With volatility expected to remain elevated, a focus on defensive strategies and capital preservation is likely to be more prudent than aggressive positioning until clear directional signals emerge.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)