US politics was in turmoil even before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. But after last week’s dramatic turn of events, it is turning around in a way hardly anyone could have imagined. Even though President Joe Biden is getting weaker by the day, Trump seems to be gaining an unstoppable momentum. According to the Democrats’ internal survey, Biden is trailing Trump in 14 key states, including the five states Biden won in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His numbers in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire are shaky after his disastrous debate performance.
The Democratic Party is deeply divided and there is growing fear among its activists that in the wake of the debate, Biden is in no position to defeat Trump and will also leave other Democrats vulnerable in November. There are growing voices within the party calling on Biden to step down, with senior party officials such as California Representative Adam Schiff openly saying that “a second Trump presidency would undermine the foundations of our democracy, and I have grave concerns about whether the president will be able to defeat Donald Trump in November”. Biden is fighting back, but is struggling to convince his party of his suitability for the top job.
GOP Convention
Meanwhile, his rivals are basking in the glory of a convention where his past critics are now coming together to formally anoint him as the party’s nominee. People like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, all of whom were targeting Trump in the Republican primaries until just a few months ago, are now explicitly supporting him. Trump with a bandage over his ears at the Republican National Convention and his supporters shouting “Fight, fight, fight!” is a powerful image for a nation that just days ago was debating the suitability of a candidate who incited the January 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill.
The confusion in the Republican Party became clear when J.D. Vance, a former Never Trumper who in 2016 wondered if Trump might be “America’s Hitler”, was confirmed as the Republican Party’s vice-presidential nominee. He faced racist attacks from far-right commentators due to his wife’s Indian heritage. Supporters of the ‘Make America Great Again’ movement are finding it difficult to reconcile Vance’s multicultural family with their core anti-immigration agenda.
Fundamental Challenges
Political polarization in America has posed some fundamental challenges to both Republicans and Democrats. Demonizing the other side has created a situation where even after an assassination attempt, bitterness continues and no attempt at reconciliation is made.
Although the theme of the Republican convention this week is unity, today’s Republican rank and file has no room for those who have a vision for America different from Trump’s. Any challenge to Trump is about challenging the party because the former president has ensured that the Republican Party today reflects his views more than a broad tent organization.
After the assassination attempt on Trump, Vance wrote: “Today is not just an isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric directly led to the assassination attempt on President Trump.” Trump’s own role in worsening the political climate in the US has been conveniently forgotten by his supporters.
Though President Biden last week called on Americans to rein in political debate, arguing that “(it) should never become a battlefield and, God forbid, a killing ground,” and warning that “no matter how strong our beliefs, we must never descend into violence,” it’s not clear who’s listening. Trump’s ability to leverage the sense of grievance and persecution felt by middle America has thwarted any attempt by the Biden administration and Democrats generally to craft a political narrative that could shift the momentum in their favor. And now, after the attack on Trump, that’s become even more difficult as the image of a rebellious former president with blood smeared across his face stands in stark contrast to a stumbling, vulnerable Biden who seems unable to articulate a coherent thought.
November is still far away. A day is a long time in politics. The Democratic Party can still regroup and mount a serious challenge to Trump. But there is no denying the fact that the last two weeks have fundamentally upended the US presidential election and will have a profound impact on American politics, whichever way the political winds blow in the days to come.
(Harsh V Pant is vice president for studies and foreign policy at ORF.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author