Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday evening and is set to hold a series of meetings with Xi as they look to secure economic gains and address key geopolitical issues including the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude Oil Price on May 14
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.12%, to $105.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures added 12 cents, or 0.12%, to $101.14 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled lower on Wednesday amid concerns that a further hike in US interest rates could weigh on demand. Brent fell more than $2 a barrel, while WTI fell more than $1.
Although Trump has said he does not believe China’s support is necessary to end the conflict with Iran, he is expected to seek Xi’s help in resolving the costly and politically unpopular war.
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China remains the largest buyer of Iranian crude despite sanctions and pressure from the Trump administration. More than 80% of Iran’s oil shipments went to China in 2025, with independent Chinese refiners continuing to buy discounted approved crude.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the global oil market was now in a “race against time”, warning that factors limiting a sharp rise in crude prices could weaken if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until June.
Despite the disruptions affecting nearly 1 billion barrels of oil supply, crude prices are still below the highs reached in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts led by Martijn Rates said the market entered the current crisis with strong supply buffers, while investors largely believed the straits would eventually reopen.
Morgan Stanley added that higher US crude exports and softer Chinese imports have so far helped protect the market from a deeper supply shock. However, the brokerage warned that a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz could once again tighten global supplies if disruptions persist beyond what China or the United States can comfortably manage.
Haitong futures said markets remained cautious and warned that the truce could only be temporary. The brokerage added that stalled talks between Washington and Tehran could trigger another escalation, pushing oil prices higher.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Monday that the disruption of shipments through Hormuz could delay the return of stability to oil markets until 2027, potentially affecting oil supplies by about 100 million barrels per week.
An extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt about 20 million barrels per day of global crude flows, Nuwama Institutional Equities said. In such a scenario, the brokerage estimates that oil prices may rise between $110 to $150 per barrel.
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