Venezuela’s oil infrastructure was not affected after a series of US strikes in Caracas and other states, according to people familiar with the matter. Key facilities such as the Jos port, the Amuay refinery and oil fields in the Orinoco belt are still operating, the people said, declining to be named because the matter is confidential.
While Venezuela was once an oil-producing powerhouse, its output has fallen sharply over the past two decades and now represents less than 1% of global supply. Recent US pressure on Maduro’s regime, including the seizure of tankers carrying Venezuelan crude, forced the country to begin shutting down some oil wells.
President Donald Trump said during a press conference on Saturday that sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry would remain in place and that US oil companies would help rebuild infrastructure and revive production. Such a reconstruction would be highly ambitious and possibly a distant prospect. Meanwhile, worldwide oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, which would mark a record, according to the International Energy Agency.
Crude prices have fallen to around $60 a barrel in recent weeks. A weekly retail trading product managed by IG Group showed US crude prices up close to $2 at one point from Friday’s close.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, said, “I estimate that Brent crude prices will rise only marginally, 1-2 US dollars or less at the open on Sunday evening. “Even under normal conditions, a disruption of this magnitude is manageable for the market. In particular, all forecasts point to significant oversupply in the first quarter, driven by seasonally weak demand and increased OPEC+ production.”
Venezuela is a member of OPEC, which is due to meet on Sunday with allies including Russia. The group is expected to stick with planned breaks to ramp up production in their planned video conference, three representatives said earlier this week.
Seizures of tankers in the Caribbean in recent weeks have spooked operators of sanctioned vessels. At least seven ships have turned back or stalled at sea, according to ship movements tracked by Bloomberg on Friday. He adds to four others who returned in mid-December in the immediate aftermath of US forces aboard the ship Skipper.
Despite the volatility of the past month, US oil producer Chevron Corp. has continued to operate in the country under an embargo waiver issued by the Trump administration.
“Chevron is focused on the safety and well-being of our employees as well as the integrity of our assets,” the company said in a statement Saturday. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations.”
Maduro’s capture raises speculation about the long-term future of Venezuela’s oil industry. The country is estimated to have more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia and has attracted some major international operators over the past century.
But two waves of nationalization left a bad taste in the mouths of Shell Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp and ConocoPhillips. Exxon and Conoco later sought compensation after their assets were confiscated by late President Hugo Chavez.
In addition to Chevron, Spain’s Repsol, Italy’s Eni SpA and France’s Maurel et Prom SA are also still present in Venezuela and partner in oil and gas ventures with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.
Trump said on Saturday that US companies would rebuild Venezuela’s oil fields and sell “massive amounts” of oil to global buyers, including existing customers and new customers. It was not immediately clear which oil companies he was referring to and he did not specify how soon they would be able to resume production.
“History shows that forced regime change rarely stabilizes oil supplies quickly, with Libya and Iraq offering clear and restrained examples,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
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