Midcaps outperform Nifty, smallcap stocks in Q4, grow 29% in earnings: Motilal Oswal

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services’ Q4FY26 India Strategy Report, midcap companies emerged as the strongest performers so far in the March quarter earnings season, with profit growth comfortably outstripping both largecaps and smallcaps.

Within the MOFSL universe, midcap companies posted 29% year-on-year earnings growth, ahead of brokerage estimates of 22%. In comparison, large-cap companies posted earnings growth of 14% year-over-year, in line with the overall universe, while small-caps grew revenue by 30%, slightly below estimates of 33%.

Sectors such as BFSI, technology, utilities, real estate and oil and gas have performed strongly in the midcap segment, contributing around 87% of revenue growth year-on-year, the brokerage said. However, the cement and telecom segments remained the major laggards. Execution also remained healthy across the midcap space, with 84% of companies under MOFSL’s coverage either meeting or exceeding estimates. This compares to 76% for largecaps and 70% for smallcaps.

Within the smallcap universe, sectors including chemicals, cement, capital goods, technology and non-lending NBFCs weighed on the overall performance. On the other hand, NBFC credit, private banks, automobile, healthcare and retail posted strong earnings growth and together contributed around 129% to revenue growth.

Among Nifty companies, 28 companies have declared results so far, posting a total earnings growth of 7% year-on-year, slightly ahead of MOFSL’s estimate of 6%. Excluding Reliance Industries, which reported a 13% decline in profit, the Nifty universe posted a revenue growth of 11%.

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      Earnings growth in the Nifty was largely driven by HDFC Bank, Infosys, TCS, M&M and Coal India, which contributed 73% of the year-on-year earnings growth, the brokerage said. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries, Maruti, Wipro, Axis Bank and Jio Financial Services weighed on the Nifty’s overall earnings. So far, seven Nifty companies have reported lower-than-expected profits, nine posted earnings beats and 12 gave in-line results.

      Field snapshot

      Banks reported a broadly stable and in-line net interest margin performance during the quarter, though PSU banks saw slightly weaker-than-expected NII and NIM trends. Loan growth remained strong, while the credit-deposit ratio declined marginally.

      NBFC lenders delivered a strong quarter, with healthy distributions, strong AUM growth following the GST rate cut and improved asset quality. Consumer firms have also seen stable demand trends, supported by benign inflation, improving rural sentiment and higher affordability following the rationalization of GST rates.

      Within metals, Jindal Stainless reported a slight beat on better volumes and NSR, while Hindustan Zinc delivered a strong earnings beat on higher silver revenues. Vedanta’s performance remained in line due to improved LME prices, better volumes and forex gains. Nalco reported in-line revenue growth, although cost inflation impacted EBITDA performance.

      The oil and gas segment remained weak overall, mainly dragged down by Reliance Industries due to weak profits in its energy business. Petronet LNG, however, delivered a strong beat driven by strong volumes.

      In the technology sector, IT services companies posted an average quarter-on-quarter constant-currency revenue growth of 1%. MOFSL said largecap IT companies may face increased growth pressure in FY27 as the deflationary trend continues.

      Overall, the brokerage said Q4FY26 earnings were broadly in line with expectations, with nearly 50% of companies under its coverage beating estimates at the PAT level, while 24% reported a miss.

      what’s next

      India’s sharp underperformance in FY26 and record FII outflows mean that Indian equities will now have a favorable base, analysts said. However, he cautioned that markets could remain volatile in the near term due to developments related to the West Asian crisis. The brokerage also flagged elevated commodity prices as a key monitorable, warning that sustained high levels could impact India’s macroeconomic parameters and monetary policy outlook.

      (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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