The Paris Olympic Games will be one of the most dangerous in history, with France’s internal strife and global geopolitical tensions rife.
France is struggling with deep internal divisions: the country’s volatile political climate and the potential for demonstrations or violence pose major challenges for organisers.
The current global geopolitical scenario, with tensions rising between major powers, further increases security threats. These Olympics could become a potential target for state-sponsored actors who seek to exploit the event for their own agenda.
In response to these increased threats, organisers are implementing unprecedented security measures, including the deployment of a record number of security personnel.
Around 30,000 police will be working for the four-week-long Olympics and Paralympics in the Ile-de-France region covering Paris, rising to a record 45,000 at peak times. They will be paired with police forces from across Europe to strengthen security efforts.
Islamic Terror
A significant concern is the threat posed by Islamic terrorist networks.
Previous attacks on sporting and cultural events, and reports of thwarted attempts by French authorities, underline this risk.
This threat has increased further due to the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict after the terrorist attack on October 7, 2023. Islamic terrorists can take advantage of this situation and present themselves as protectors of Palestinians and Muslims and target not only Israel but also Western countries that support Israel.
Daesh (ISIS) emerges as a primary suspect, particularly because it operates as an extensive network that provides justification, motivation, and identity to lone actors and smaller units operating in its name.
The arrests in Denmark and Germany complicate the scenario with the possibility of Hamas conducting operations on European soil as well.
Historically, Hamas has distanced itself from international Islamist terrorist networks such as Daesh and Al Qaeda and focused on Israel. However, since October 7 the dynamics have changed, with the conflict being seen as a broader Arab and Muslim cause against the morally corrupt West supporting Israel.
This alliance could potentially lead to cooperation between Hamas and Daesh. The Munich 1972 Olympics are a sad reminder of the vulnerability of such events. The infiltration of the Olympic Village, the murder of Israeli athletes and the hostage-taking by Black September highlight the dangers.
The climate of anti-Semitism in Europe, and past rhetoric justifying attacks on Israelis, suggest that Israeli athletes and fans may be at greater risk during the Paris Olympics.
Deadly dangers
Hostage-taking, suicide bombings, and explosive plantings are among the potential threats.
Although suicide bombings have become less common in Europe, they remain a possibility. International cooperation is needed to thwart such attacks because of the complexity of surveillance and intelligence gathering.
Recent attacks by ISIS-affiliated militants in Moscow demonstrate the lethal potential of shootings in crowded areas, while France’s experience with knife and vehicle attacks adds another level of concern.
The worst-case scenario would involve multiple attacks at different locations, using different methods and targets, and would expand beyond sports venues to churches and synagogues.
What motivates a terrorist?
The threat landscape is further complex due to the diverse routes to radicalisation and the different motivations that lead individuals to violence.
Extremists draw inspiration from a variety of ideologies and their motivations can be personal, social or political. This is also because the Olympics provide an attractive high-profile platform for extremist groups and individuals seeking to carry out attacks.
Right-wing extremism is another major threat. On July 17, French anti-terrorism police detained an alleged neo-Nazi supporter suspected of targeting the Olympic torch relay.
Beyond Paris
Social media plays a vital role in amplifying extremist narratives and providing platforms for radicalisation.
The interconnectedness of the digital world means that attacks at a public event as far away as Paris could have a significant impact on the Games.
But security concerns extend beyond the area around Olympic venues, including all media-related and public events associated with the Games. The global reach of the Olympics means that any security breach, no matter where it occurs, can have far-reaching consequences.
The spirit of the Olympics is rooted in peaceful competition, reminiscent of their ancient Greek origins. The 2024 Paris Olympics present a unique set of security challenges, requiring a comprehensive and multifaceted approach that addresses both internal and external threats.
International cooperation, intelligence gathering, and a thorough understanding of the evolving threat landscape are vital to the safety of athletes, spectators, and the general public.
Marco Lombardi, director of the ITSTIME Research Center, is full professor at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, where he teaches crisis management and risk communication, mass communication theory, sociology, intelligence, and counterterrorism and security policies. He is a member of the Government Commission on Counter Radicalization and of the Strategic Policy Committee of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
Maria Alvanou is a criminologist (International Research Doctorate in Criminology-University of Trento) with the Italian Team for Security, Terrorist Issues and Management of Emergencies (ITSTIME) at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart. Her doctoral research on Palestinian female suicide bombers during the Second Intifada included fieldwork in Israel. She has been a member of the RAN and has taught at several law enforcement and military schools.
Originally published by 360info under Creative Commons.
