The joint, coordinated attack on Iran by the US and Israel eliminated the high-value target of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, killing Tehran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the US president had repeatedly called for “regime change” in the Islamic republic. But now it remains uncertain whether this target will be achieved or not. A Washington Post report said regime change in Iran is still “unlikely.”According to a classified report cited by the Washington Post, even a large-scale US military strike on Iran would be unlikely to overthrow the country’s strong military and clerical establishment, casting doubt on regime-change hopes as the Donald Trump administration is signaling a broader military campaign, which officials say has “just begun.”The report, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with its contents, raises questions about President Donald Trump’s plan to “wipe out” Iran’s leadership and install a new ruler of his choice.The intelligence assessment was completed by the US and Israel on 28 February, about a week before the start of the war. It examined various scenarios, including a limited campaign targeting Iran’s leaders and a broader attack on the country’s leadership and institutions. In both situations, analysts concluded that Iran’s system would likely continue to function even if Khamenei was killed. He said Iran’s clerical and military institutions have established procedures to ensure the continuity of power.The report described the possibility of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control as “impossible,” according to people familiar with the classified document.The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which prepared the report, brings together experienced analysts from across the US intelligence community. Its reports are meant to reflect the collective judgment of Washington’s 18 intelligence agencies.The CIA referred questions to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. The White House also did not confirm whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before approving the military operation. Since the war began, the conflict has expanded, including submarine activity in the Indian Ocean and missile confrontations near NATO member Turkey.White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement, “President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with respect to Operation Epic Fury: destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, dismantling their navy, eliminating their ability to arm proxies, and preventing them from ever acquiring nuclear weapons.” “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”Other major media outlets, including the New York Times, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, have also reported that US intelligence agencies suspect Iran’s opposition could soon seize power. However, specific analysis by the NIC on the potential consequences of various military attacks had not been previously reported.Susan Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president of the Brookings Institution, said the assessment reflects a deep understanding of Iran’s political system.“This seems like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been in place over many years,” he said.The intelligence report does not appear to have examined other possible options, such as deploying U.S. ground troops to Iran or supporting ethnic Kurdish groups to foment an insurgency. It is also not clear whether the large-scale operation discussed in the report is exactly the same as the military operation currently underway.Meanwhile, Iran’s succession process appears to be unraveling even as the country faces heavy US and Israeli air and naval attacks.The decision on Iran’s next supreme leader depends on the powerful Assembly of Experts, a senior clerical body. However, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security officials also have significant influence.There is speculation that the late supreme leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei could take over. But no official announcement has been made. According to a Western security official, the IRGC is pushing for his candidacy, although some senior figures – including Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council – have opposed the move.As the war enters its second week, Trump continues to demand Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” as he wrote in a post on Truth Social. He has also suggested that he should play a role in choosing Iran’s next leader.Trump told reporters that Mojtaba Khamenei is “incompetent” and a “lightweight” and said he did not want a leader who would “rebuild” Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people that I think will do a good job,” he told NBC News.Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected the idea that Trump would have any role in choosing the country’s next leader.“The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, and not by (Jeffrey) Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf wrote on X, referring to the late sex offender who was once close to Trump.Current and former US officials say they have not yet seen signs of a large-scale rebellion inside Iran or serious divisions within the government or security forces that could lead to regime change. In the past, Iran’s security forces have shown they are willing to suppress protests with force. Earlier this year, thousands of protesters were killed during demonstrations over the country’s economic problems.So far, Trump’s message to the Iranian public has been to stay indoors until the US-Israeli bombing campaign ends.Experts say that as long as Iran’s clerical and military leadership remains intact, Trump will have limited influence on the country’s political future.“Taking a knee to Trump would go against everything he stands for,” said Holly Dagress, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The upper levels of the clergy establishment are ideological, and so their modus operandi is to oppose American imperialism.”Trump might be able to influence events if the Iranian government fell. But intelligence reports show that the system is still strong.Maloney said, “There is no other force within Iran that can compete with the residual power that the regime has.” “They may not be able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, but they can certainly dominate inside the country.”