Last week’s market turmoil was replaced by calmer conditions this week after a raft of US economic data eased fears of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy and pushed back against expectations of aggressive US rate cuts.
“Our assessment is that the weak market response to early August US data was disproportionate and largely reflected a quick relaxation of tight conditions in some markets,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.
“While the risk of a U.S. recession has risen slightly, there are few signs of a more significant crisis brewing.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.34% in early trade and was set to rise 1.3% for the week, while US futures rose following a strong overnight cash session on Wall Street.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.09%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.17%.
Strong US retail sales data and lower weekly jobless claims were the latest shots for positive risk sentiment, following a benign inflation report earlier this week that reaffirmed bets for an imminent Fed rate cut, but possibly at a measured pace.
Markets are now pricing in just a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut from the Federal Reserve next month, down from 55% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“The totality of the data tells us that disinflation is continuing and that the Fed is almost certain to cut rates by 25bps in September,” said David Chao, Invesco’s global market strategist for Asia Pacific ex-Japan.
“But I believe the July inflation report reduces the chances of super-sized cuts, although this was never on the cards.”
Japan’s Nikkei opened strongly and rose 2.7%.
The Nikkei, which suffered heavy losses last week due to the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, was poised for a weekly gain of 7.6%, its best performance since April 2020.
Friday’s gains were helped in part by a weaker yen that was last at 149.08 per dollar, near a two-week low of 149.40 hit in the previous session and some distance from last week’s seven-month peak.
The Swiss franc, which also rose last week on the back of a flight to safety, was little changed at 0.8716 per dollar and looked set to lose 0.7% for the week.
Among other currencies, the euro struggled to move above the $1.10 level against a stronger dollar, buoyed by elevated US Treasury yields.
The two-year yield was near a more than one-week high and was last at 4.0846%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was steady at 3.9112%. (US/)
In commodities, oil prices edged lower on Friday, though set for a weekly gain as upbeat US economic data eased investor concerns about a potential slowdown in the top oil-consuming nation.
Brent crude futures fell 0.19% to $80.88 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.28% to $77.94 a barrel. However, both were eyeing weekly gains of more than 1%.
Spot gold rose 0.07% to $2,457.79 an ounce.
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