A loose coalition of left-wing parties united for France’s snap election is set to become the largest parliamentary bloc on Sunday, beating far-right parties, according to surprise forecast results.
The New Popular Front (NFP) was formed last month after President Emmanuel Macron announced early elections, bringing together socialists, greens, communists and hard-left figures.
Veteran presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) was leading the race after the first round on June 30, and opinion polls predicted she would lead the largest party in parliament after Sunday’s second round.
But projections based on vote samples by four major polling agencies and seen by AFP showed no grouping headed for an absolute majority, with the left-wing NFP ahead of both Macron’s centrist Ensemble and Le Pen’s eurosceptic, anti-immigration RN.
The left-wing group was projected to win 172 to 215 seats, the president’s coalition was projected to win 150 to 180 seats, and the National Rally – which had been expected to win an absolute majority – was projected to win 115 to 155 seats, a surprise third place.
It is a new high for the far right, but falls far short of a victory that would have been a blow to Macron, who had said the snap election was called to prevent France sliding toward political extremes.
France’s hardline leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in his first reaction, called on French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to resign and said a left-wing coalition was ready to govern.
Macron will attend next week’s historic NATO summit in Washington as a weakened but not defeated figure, and France is left without a stable ruling majority less than three weeks before it hosts the Olympics in Paris.
‘A lot of stress’
The shortest election campaign in French history was marked by a fiery national mood, threats and violence – including racist abuse against dozens of candidates and campaigners.
Around 30,000 police have been deployed to maintain order, and many voters have expressed fears that riots may break out in some cities after the results are announced.
Yet voter turnout was high, with left-wing and centrist candidates urging their supporters to defend democratic values and the rule of law — while far-right candidates sought an opportunity to overturn the established order.
By 5 pm (1500 GMT), about 61.4 percent of voters had cast their vote, according to interior ministry data – the highest at this stage of a legislative race since 1981.
Antoine Schrammekh, a 72-year-old “victim” in the village of Rosheim, outside the eastern city of Strasbourg, said he feared France would see “a turning point in the history of the republic”.
And in Tourcoing, near the northeastern city of Lille, 66-year-old retiree Laurence Abboud said he feared violence after the results were announced. “There is a lot of tension, people are going crazy,” he said.
A clear RN victory would have forced Macron into an uneasy cohabitation with Prime Minister Bardella for the remaining three years of his term. Even without that scenario, France is left with a hung parliament that contains a large eurosceptic, anti-immigration party.
This would have weakened France’s international standing and threatened Western unity in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
EU officials, already learning to deal with far-right parties in power in Italy and the Netherlands and frustrated with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, are watching France closely.
The return of the ‘Republican Front’
Amid the uncertainty in the country, more than 200 tactical voting pacts were struck between centrist and left-wing candidates last week, aimed at preventing the RN from winning an absolute majority.
It is being seen as a return to the far-right opposition “Republican Front”, which was first invoked when Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie faced Jacques Chirac in the 2002 presidential election.
The question for France now is whether this last-ditch coalition can now support a stable government, backed by a large RN bloc in parliament, led by Le Pen herself as she prepares to run for president in 2027.
If a coalition cannot be formed, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal could try to lead a minority government, as French rules allow the president to dissolve parliament or call new elections for 12 months.
Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said France was “on the cusp of a major political change”, warning of a “legislative deadlock” that would “weaken France’s voice on the European and international stage”.
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