Speaking on Commodity Central with ET Now, Kedia said the recent 10% correction in silver—followed by a quick 4.5% rebound—reflects overdue profit booking after a “great rally” in 2025.
Low volume, increased margins increase metal volatility
Cadia pointed out that trading volumes remain muted due to the holiday period and are likely to remain thin through early January.
“The CME margin increase on both gold and silver triggered profit booking. Markets were severely overbought, so some correction was inevitable,” he said.
He added that global growth concerns, including comments from industry leaders and a review of China’s export policies for 2026, also weighed on sentiment.
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Historically, similar reforms have played out before. “In October, silver fell about 18% and gold about 13%. This kind of volatility is not new when markets are overheated,” noted Cadia.
Gold, silver outlook: correction likely, upside intact
While Cadia does not expect a repeat of the 2025 Sharp rally in 2026, he believes upside remains on the longer horizon.
Gold (International):
Near-term support is seen around $3,800, while upside could extend to $4,850 if rate cuts continue and macro risks re-emerge.
Silver (International):
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After reaching the long-term target of $75-80 much sooner than expected, silver may recover towards $60 before attempting a gradual move towards $85-90.
“Silver has achieved multi-year targets in a single year. Now the market needs time to digest the gains,” he said.
Crude Oil: Oversupply Caps Upside
Turning to energy markets, Kedia said Brent crude’s fall of around 18-20% indicates a well-supplied market.
“OPEC+ actions are already discounted. US production remains high and demand is low,” he said.
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In the first quarter of 2026, he expects crude oil to trade in a narrow range of $58-66 per barrel, barring any major geopolitical shocks involving regions such as Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan or Venezuela.
Base metals are poised for a 2026 rally
Cadia believes that base metals have lagged behind precious metals and supporting consumption due to rate cuts could attract new funding inflows.
Copper: Target $13,500 internationally in 2026; Around ₹1,400 in the domestic market
Zinc: It is seen around $3,500 globally and around ₹340 domestically
Aluminium: Domestic prices may move towards ₹320
“Consumption-driven demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is yet to emerge fully. Base metals still have room to run,” he said.
Steel Outlook: Cautious Optimism
On ferrous metals, Kedia said domestic steel prices have recently moved towards ₹41,000 per tonne, but high inventories and ample supply may limit sharp increases.
“Steel may move towards ₹45,000, but we don’t expect the kind of fireworks seen in silver or copper,” he said.
market view
Kedia summarized the outlook by advising caution in the near term but optimism over the medium horizon.
“2026 will be a year of consolidation rather than runaway rallies. The correction should be seen as healthy, especially in precious metals, while base metals may move slowly,” he said.
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