Exciting, myth-busting: Trade experts decode 2025 box office, keep an eye on 2026
Last year shattered box office myths with films like ‘Seyyaara’, ‘Loka: Chapter 1’ and ‘Mahavatar Narasimha’, rewarding content and conviction over formula and star power. Experts speak to India Today about how the audience-driven shift, along with the strong slate of 2026, promises an exciting future for Hindi cinema.
2025 wasn’t about one movie, one star or one genre – it belonged to the audience. And that’s the only thread that tells us how the business is reading the past year. A year that rewarded conviction, punished complacency and, perhaps for the first time in a long time, forced Hindi cinema to really listen. As the industry turns a new page in the New Year, India Today Spoke to experts to find out what 2025 was like and what to expect for the year ahead.
For distributor Akshay Rathi, this change was impossible to miss. “Compared to last year, 2025 was very encouraging,” he says, emphasizing that the excitement was not just about the headline numbers. “We had a lot of films that crossed the Rs 100 crore mark, and some were absolutely successful, which showed us what the real potential of the Hindi market is.”
What made this year particularly interesting for Rathi was which films carried that momentum forward. “It broke the myth that only big-screen spectacles could generate box office numbers,” alluding to the success of romantic musicals such as soldierWhich reached close to Rs 300 crore, and Mahavatar NarasimhaWhich grew steadily from its humble beginnings purely through word of mouth. “One of our animated films has also grossed more than Rs 100 crore. This is a big lesson for the fraternity,” the distributor stressed.
Growth, K-shaped model and appliqué
This lesson sits alongside producer and film business expert Girish Johar’s more cautious assessment of the same period. He agrees that 2025 was a good year for all languages and Hindi cinema saw a growth of 10-12 percent compared to 2024. But he’s quick to outline the imbalance: “We’re in a K-shaped model. If a movie works, it grows rapidly. If it doesn’t, it crashes almost immediately – sometimes from day one.”
Johar believes that this instability has put pressure on the middle. “We make about a thousand films a year,” he says. For theaters to thrive, those Rs 20-50 crore films need to survive.” Rathi doesn’t dispute the concern but provides context. “The strike rate has always been around 10 per cent. What is encouraging this year is the mix of successful films,” he said.
There is nothing more embedded in the mixture than stalwart“A cohesive cast, a runtime of over three and a half hours and still grossing over Rs 800 crore at the box office,” says Akshay Rathi, “This shows that the audience is willing to commit if the storytelling is strong,” Johar agrees, noting that the film demonstrated how content can overcome the perceived risks of length, scale or style,
In the same way, where there was applause, there was striking. “In a film that stars Ranveer Singh, Madhavan, Sanjay Dutt, Akshaye Khanna and Arjun Rampal, tremendous credit still goes to Aditya Dhar. The storyteller is finally being recognised.” Rathi asserts that this marks a significant cultural shift – where success is no longer attributed to star power alone.
Year not only of stars but also of artists
This change was also reflected in the number of shows that remained with audiences beyond their opening weekends. Rathi believes that 2025 quietly became a year where actors were rewarded for commitment rather than status. The entire cast of stalwart “He explains how a group was embraced without the usual hierarchy of screen time or star billing,” he says. Johar says such films have reset audiences’ expectations of what they are willing to invest emotionally.
According to him, Vicky Kaushal also continued to strengthen his position as an artiste trusted by audiences regardless of scale. At the other end of the spectrum, new faces like Anit Padda and Ahaan Pandey emerged as real finds. His success in a romantic musical that relied more on emotion and music rather than spectacle reinforced another truth of 2025: relativity is back in fashion.
The music also regained its power at the box office. Girish Johar explains how it’s a crazy person’s madness It attracted massive audiences on the strength of its soundtrack, proving that in a cluttered content landscape, a strong album can still draw people to theaters. “This is something that the industry had underestimated for some time,” he highlights.
Of course, this year has not been good for everyone. Johar cites films like Dino in subwaywhich had music, emotion, and layered storytelling, but got stuck between big releases, and flowerswhich earned critical acclaim and a rare 50-day theatrical run, but may have fared further commercially. even homeboundHe believes he deserves more breathing space.
What has 2025 prepared for 2026
Drawing a larger outline around these trends is Devang Sampat, Managing Director, Sinopolis India, who believes that 2025 will be remembered as a significant year. According to him, the Indian box office is on track to close much earlier than the previous record of Rs 12,226 crore set in 2023. “What defines this year is not any one blockbuster but the breadth and depth across languages,” he says.
He credits regional cinema for keeping theaters resilient during the uneven phases for Hindi releases. “Kannada cinema gave us Kantara: A Legend Chapter 1Malayalam cinema gave Lok: Chapter 1And Gujarati cinema set a record for its highest-grossing film ever with Lalo. That widespread participation is what has kept the industry stable,” says Sampath.
More importantly, he sees a behavioral shift that will define the years to come. He further added, “Audiences are now making informed choices. They are no longer driven solely by opening weekend buzz or star power. They are willing to wait, watch and then decide.” Sampath believes that films are like soldier And Mahavatar NarasimhaWhich grew steadily rather than exploding on the first day, indicating a healthy theatrical ecosystem. He underlined, “This move towards earned success rather than manufactured publicity is extremely encouraging for the long-term health of theatres.”
Looking ahead, Sampath describes 2026 as “strong and well-distributed”, with consistent content arriving across different regions and languages. Big ticket Hindi titles like Ramayana, love and war, Dhurandhar 2, border 2, King And Galvan Anticipation will be boosted, while regional and international releases will help maintain consistent viewership: “When strong content arrives regularly it creates a habit of going to the cinema rather than a reliance on a few tentpole weekends.”
Meanwhile, Johar hopes that the lessons of 2025 will not be forgotten in a hurry. He reiterates, “I’m really focusing on medium films. Concept-driven, female-led, small stories – those little gems. If they work, the whole ecosystem benefits.” Akshay Rathi, on his part, says, “Expectations from 2026 are huge – not just because of the big titles, but because of the change in mindset in 2025. This year has taught us that the films we don’t put in neat boxes can sometimes yield the biggest triumphs. If filmmakers remain brave and don’t shy away from formulas, 2026 could truly be one of the most exciting years we’ve had in a long time.” Have seen.”
As 2026 grows bigger with ambition and scale, the real question is whether the industry has learned to listen, and whether it can continue to earn the trust it has worked so hard to win back.
