Commodity Radar: Gold sales rise. 4 technical triggers to support the trade

Gold is going through a consolidation phase becoming a ‘sell-on-rise’ trade. June futures on MCX on Monday traded at Rs. 600 (0.4%) to Rs. crossed the 1.5 lakh mark, though global cues weakened. The yellow metal fell nearly 26%, or about Rs. 53,000 has been revised.

Research Analyst Jatin Trivedi, Vice President, LKP Securities said, Gold Rs. After a sharp rejection from highs near 1,54,000+, a pullback has entered consolidation phase, with prices now trading at Rs. 1,49,500 is stable around. “The structure reflects a distribution close to the top and lower high formation, indicating an opportunity for a sell-off until the resistance is decisively breached,” he said.

The INR movement continues to add to the MCX gold swing and Trivedi believes that any strength in the rupee could push domestic gold prices further during the pullback.

“Gold is highly sensitive to macro triggers this week and geopolitical volatility (US-Israel-Iran) is expected to support downside cushioning,” LKP analyst said. “US data risk (FOMC, CPI, GDP) is creating uncertainty. This combination supports volatile but non-trending behavior with risk on rallies,” the analyst added.

4 technical triggers to watch out for:

1) Key support and resistance

The price has recovered sharply and is now moving to the downside of key resistance, indicating weak recovery efforts. Immediate Resistance Rs. 1,50,500 – seen at Rs 1,51,000 while key resistance is seen at Rs. 1,53,000 found at. Immediate Support Rs. 1,48,500 is seen at Rs. A key support is seen at 1,47,500.

Rs. Failure to sustain above 1,51,000 keeps the downside pressure intact.

2) Momentum indicators

RSI is near 47-48, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum. An inability to reclaim the 55-60 zone indicates a lack of strong purchasing power. The price is hovering around the middle band, indicating consolidation after the expansion of volatility. The bands are flattening, indicating a range with a downside bias.

3) Moving Average

EMA 8 (Red): Acts as immediate resistance

EMA 21 (yellow): Flat to slight downside

Price trading below both EMAs confirms short-term bearish control.

4) MACD

MACD remains in negative territory, albeit slightly flat. This suggests bearish momentum remains unchanged but with limited acceleration – ideal for sell-up setups.

Gold Trading Strategy

Trivedi Rs. 1,50,500 – Rs. 1,51,000 with a stop loss around Rs. 1,53,000 and Rs. Recommends a ‘Sell on Rise’ strategy around the target of 1,47,500.

Gold is likely to face selling pressure near the resistance zone as long as it remains below ₹1,51,000, with a downside target towards ₹1,47,500 in the near term, Trivedi said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times.)