In the remote Chinese desert, a vast military complex is taking shape that some security scholars say is designed to ensure that a U.S. first strike on China’s nuclear arsenal could not credibly overwhelm Beijing’s ability to retaliate. China’s nuclear missiles can already reach any American city. Now, satellite images show that Beijing is building a vast web of launch pads, bunkers and communications nodes near the isolated nuclear silos that house the Chinese military’s longest-range missiles.The ability to defend its desert silos is key to China’s stated goal of building a minimal but credible nuclear deterrent – a policy based on the ability to retaliate if attacked first. While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can fire nuclear weapons from submarines and aircraft, silo fields in the northwestern Xinjiang region and Gansu province are the core of its nuclear forces.The cornerstone of China’s doctrine is its “no first use” policy. Xi warned US President Donald Trump this month that mishandling his countries’ disagreement over Taiwan, which China claims as territory, could take them to a “dangerous place”.octagon in the desertThe new desert infrastructure focuses on two octagon-shaped installations built over the past six years in eastern Xinjiang. Both are south-west of the Hami nuclear silo fields – one about 140 kilometers away, the other about 230 kilometers away. The images show that exercises involving large military vehicles took place around the North Octagon during this month and April.Satellite images show that the octagonal structures contain accommodation for personnel and large military vehicles. They are surrounded by armored bunkers and fortified weapons-storage areas, as well as airfields and railheads that connect the Octagon to the Hami silos.Five security scholars interviewed by Reuters agreed that the infrastructure could broadly support China’s nuclear program, as well as other military objectives. But he cautioned that key details remain unknown — including what weapons China might deploy on the launch pad and whether the octagonal structures have facilities to fit truck-mounted ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons.US officials and arms-control analysts say China is expanding and improving its nuclear weapons capabilities faster than any other country. The latest Pentagon report on China’s military modernization says the country’s weapons production has slowed, but it is on track to field 1,000 weapons by 2030. A December report estimated that China had loaded 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) into its three main silos.According to US officials, China is also strengthening its early-warning system. According to the Pentagon, the system can detect an incoming ICBM within 90 seconds of launch and alert the command center within three to four minutes – enough time for China to fire its own silo-based weapons before they are hit.Defense isolated ChinaSignificantly, each octagon lies at the core of a network of dirt roads and drains that extend into the desert. These pathways connect to concrete pads. Three security scholars said the pads could be used to deploy mobile air-defense missiles, electronic warfare nodes or, to name a few, larger ones, road-mobile ICBM launchers. Hans Christensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Information Project, said that although it is difficult to draw conclusions about how the various installations will be used, “it is hard to rule out anything”.The extent of the defensive network near its silos potentially isolates China from other major nuclear powers. Christensen said the United States and Russia – whose warheads and deployed weapons far exceed Beijing’s – rely on a combination of the sheer number of silos, their relative isolation and rigid construction to stop a first strike, rather than comprehensive missile defense. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” Christensen said. “This is an extraordinary effort.”(This is a Reuters story)