A new study has identified India as a country, which is likely to experience the most long -term effects from a mosquito -borne disease chikungunya that has spread rapidly in recent years.

According to global analysis, more than 5 million people in India may be at risk of contracting Chikungunya annually, pouring heavy burden on individuals and health care systems. The study highlights the immediate requirement of public health measures and increases the preparations to remove the increasing risk.

India and Brazil account for almost half of the global chikungunya Burden

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Nagasaki University and International Vaccine Institute at Seoul made the biggest and most detailed mapping of Chikungunya risk to date. Infectious disease model estimates that 1.44 crore people worldwide may be at risk every year, with 51 million people in India.

If the disease continues to spread in new areas, the annual global number may increase at risk, which can be 3.49 million including 1.21 crore in India.

The analysis ranked India, Brazil and Indonesia as the top three countries, which is the most likely to be the most affected by Chikungunya in the long term. India and Brazil are together for about half of the global health effects caused by the viruses, underlining the need for coordinated responses. Older health issues are considered the biggest concern, as about half of the infected people can develop long -term disability.

Chronic pain and disability are major concerns

Chikungunya virus is mainly performed by two types of mosquitoes: Aedes aerpti and Aedes albopictus, commonly known as yellow fever and tiger mosquitoes. The virus causes severe joint pain and high fever in infected people. Since its emergence in 2004, there has been an outbreak of chikungunya in more than 114 countries, indicating a growing public health challenge.

While most patients recover from the early stage after several weeks, more than 50% of the chickengunya survivors tolerate long -term combined pain and disability. The fatal cases are unusual but possible. Currently, there are no specific antiviral remedies for chikungunya, although two vaccines have been approved for use in some countries.

Study uses machine learning to map global risk

To estimate the risk, researchers applied a machine learning to combine data on chikungunia infections known with factors such as mosquito presence, appropriate temperature, rainfall, environmental suitability and national GDP.

The study model predicted that, on average, 1.2% and 1.3% people may be expected to be infected every year in risk for chikungunya globally. This is less than annual risk for dengue, which is 6%. However, some regions, such as gabon in Africa, may withstand too much infection rates – up to 11% in risk.

Assessing long -term results, the research team found that the chronic disease is responsible for more than half of Chikungunya’s global health burden. Most of the affected people are between 40 and 60 years old, with the highest risk of acute disease found in children under 10 and are more than 80 adults.

‘Risk is spread beyond tropical regions’

Hyolim Kang, who led the research as part of his doctoral studies in Lshtm and is a research partner at Nagasaki University, said, “It has been widely thought that mosquitoes carrying chikungunya will be limited to subtropical or tropical continents, but our analysis has found that our analysis is on these areas.”

Kang said, “Prevention of the spread of the disease is important for everyone. There are no specific antiviral therapy for Chikungunya and treatment depends only on accessory care. Not only the infections are extremely painful, even people can become infected and leave with disability throughout life.”

Sushant Sahastrudde, International Vaccine Institute at the International Vaccine Institute, the Director General of Associate and Entrepreneur’s Development and co-writer, said, “Possible spread of a virus-carrying vectors like Chikunguni will not wait for us to work for years.

Kaza Abbas, LSHTM and Joint Associate Professor and Senior Author at the University of Nagasaki, commented, “Our model-based projections are useful to inform the outbreak response vaccination strategies for various age groups, which will use two licensed vaccines (ixchiq and vammkunya) in Brazil, traditional monitoring system may have been crushed.

Monitoring and vaccine preparations are required

The study maps offer an annual snapshot of long -term risk and do not factors in unexpected changes such as extreme weather events or the effects of climate change, which can affect future outbreaks. Authors emphasize the importance of using such data to direct public health reactions and targeted vaccination strategies.

The need for continuous monitoring, public education and vaccine strategies is important, with India’s millions of risks and the possibility of adequate long -term burden of the disease. New estimates provide valuable information to direct interventions aimed at reducing the human and healthcare effects of Chikungunya.