Amid escalating conflict involving Iran-Israel-US tensions, more than three weeks in the making now, Washington has deployed more than 4,000 marines to the region and is considering further military actions, even as talk of a ceasefire surfaces, with oil markets swinging sharply in response to both military developments and diplomatic signals.Larry Fink, one of BlackRock’s eight co-founders and now its chairman and chief executive, has warned that if Iran continues to threaten energy supply routes after the war ends, prices could rise to $150 a barrel and push the global economy into recession.
The conflict that will determine the direction of oil markets
BlackRock, the world’s largest wealth manager with approximately $14 trillion in assets, is one of the most influential financial institutions on the planet. Its immense scale and reach provides Chairman and CEO Larry Fink a unique vantage point on global events and their potential impact on the economy.In an interview on the BBC’s Big Boss Interview podcast published on Wednesday, he said it was too early to determine the ultimate outcome of the war, but the direction of oil prices would depend on what happens next.If the conflict is resolved and Iran becomes a country that “can be accepted again by the international community,” he said, prices could fall below pre-war levels, which stood at about $70 a barrel.But that outcome depends on more than a ceasefire.
“Year above $100…Oil near $150”
Fink warned that even if the fighting stops, markets could remain under pressure if Iran continues to pose a threat to trade and regional stability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.“If the war ends, and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a threat to this peaceful coexistence of the GCC region, then I would argue that we could have oil from over US$100 to closer to US$150, which has a profound impact on the economy,” he said. He said such a scenario would amount to “possibly a severe and massive recession.”
Supply disruption focuses on a critical chokepoint
The warning comes as the conflict has virtually halted shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s gas and crude supplies.The scale of the disruption has drawn concern from the International Energy Agency, which described the situation as “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
This image released by the Royal Thai Navy shows the Thai cargo ship, Mayuri Nari, which was attacked and set on fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (Royal Thai Navy via AP)
Brent crude prices have reached their highest level in nearly four years, at one point near $120 a barrel.However, prices fell nearly 4% to around $98 on Wednesday after reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war, raising the possibility of a ceasefire.Iran has strongly rejected Donald Trump’s claims that talks are underway to end the ongoing conflict, with its top military command scoffing at Washington’s statements.In a video shared by Iranian media, a military spokesman rejected the suggestion and said the United States was effectively “negotiating with itself.” The spokesperson delivered a defiant message, emphasizing that Tehran had no intention of engaging in negotiations under the current circumstances.“Our first and last words… have been, are and will be: Someone like us will never compromise with someone like you. Not now, not ever,” the spokesperson said.Also, Washington has deployed more than 4,000 US Marines to the region and is considering sending a combat brigade from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, signaling a possible surge.
Infrastructure damage and recovery delays
Even if hostilities subside, energy supplies are unlikely to improve rapidly. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said more than 40 energy assets in nine countries in the Middle East were “severely or very severely” damaged, meaning oil fields, refineries and pipelines could not be immediately restored.
Residents watch and take photos as flames and smoke rise from an oil storage facility during attacks on the city during a US-Israeli military operation in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, March 7, 2026. (Alireza Sotakbar/ISNA via AP)
This destruction will prolong the disruption to global supply chains even after the conflict ends. Speaking at the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra on Monday, Birol compared the current situation to past crises: “The impact of the current disruptions is comparable to the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the natural gas crisis of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, taken together.” He said its impact goes beyond oil and gas. “Some important arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, helium, their trade is disrupted, which will have serious consequences for the global economy,” Birol said.
Impact on households and pressure towards alternative energy
Fink also warned that higher energy prices would have a direct and unequal impact on consumers, especially in import-dependent countries. “Rising energy prices is a very regressive tax. It hits the poor more than the rich,” he said. In the UK, where most of the country’s energy is imported, rising oil and gas costs are expected to hit household bills in the coming months. The pressure has already prompted some energy experts to call on governments to expand domestic oil and gas production to reduce the risk of external shocks.
Additionally, Fink said continued high prices could accelerate the shift toward alternative energy sources. “If oil prices go up to $150 you’ll have a lot of countries moving increasingly toward solar and maybe wind energy,” he said. “Use what you have unquestioningly, but also move aggressively toward alternative sources.”