Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition fell short of its declared “victory line” of a majority in snap parliamentary elections, media projections showed on Monday.
The AFP is now examining options for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after its worst result since 2009, and the prospects for its embattled leader Ishiba, who only took office on October 1.
Why such a big loss?
A staunch critic of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his brand of establishment politics, Ishiba has long exploited his relative popularity among voters as an “interparty enemy” of the LDP.
But while this brought him the leadership of the party, the Nationals in the election were more interested in punishing the LDP over a scandal in which party members spent money from fund-raisers.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) recently elected moderate conservative former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as leader, also not helping.
“I think most Japanese people trust Noda”, said Masato Kamikubo, a politics professor at Ritsumeikan University.
“He is a very stable politician,” Kamikubo said.
While the LDP’s seats, projected by public broadcaster NHK, dropped to 191 from 259 seats in the last election, the CDP’s seats increased from 96 to 148.
The LDP’s coalition partner Komeito dropped from 32 to 24, with new party chief Keiichi Ishii losing his seat.
Can the opposition form a government?
That’s difficult, analysts say, given the fragmented opposition and memories of its turbulent rule between 2009 and 2012.
“The probability of handing over power to the opposition is not zero, but there are too many opposition parties to reach a majority,” said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo.
Policy differences and past differences are dividing and troubling opposition parties, from the Communists to the moderate CDP, the centrist Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the “reformist conservative” Japan Innovation Party.
Can Ishiba find new partners?
The Prime Minister has completed his work to accomplish this.
During the campaign, CDP leader Noda said it would be “impossible” to join with the LDP, which has been part of previous no-confidence votes.
The Japan Innovation Party also remains unconvinced, with its head Nobuyuki Baba dismissing a coalition with the LDP as “impossible” in the current scandal-tainted situation.
The centrist DPP also denied that it would join the coalition.
But its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, has left open the possibility of a “partial coalition”, where it could offer some flexibility on individual policies with those it has similarity with.
What about Ishiba’s future?
So Ishiba will likely have to lead a minority administration and seek support from other parties on a case-by-case basis.
But this is likely to destabilize Ishiba’s emerging power base, and leave him vulnerable to challenges from within his own party.
There is growing speculation that Ishiba may be forced to resign to take responsibility for the debacle – she would become the shortest-serving prime minister in Japan’s post-war history.
However, subtly denying the possibility, Ishiba responded in the affirmative on Sunday night when a reporter asked if the prime minister intended to perform his duties.
“If the ruling coalition or just the LDP loses its majority, Ishiba will face strong criticism from party members,” Yosuke Sunehara of Kobe University told AFP before Sunday.
But at the same time, the ruling coalition’s loss of majority in the lower house only reflects public disillusionment with the political funding scam.
So if “Ishiba is ousted while the party tries to hush up the issue, the public backlash against the LDP will intensify,” Sunhara said.
“This makes it difficult for Ishiba’s rivals within the party to criticize him.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
