Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing a political crisis that may lead to his resignation. Increasingly isolated within his own Liberal Party, Trudeau has been accused of using allegations against India to divert attention from growing domestic challenges, including a declining economy and discontent within his own party.
Liberal Party rebellion
In the past year, several high-profile Liberal Party MPs, including Shaun Casey and Ken MacDonald, have publicly called for Trudeau to step down, citing dissatisfaction with his leadership. Reports suggest that more than 20 Liberal MPs have signed a pledge demanding his resignation.
The resignation of Chrystia Freeland as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister in December was a blow to Trudeau’s government. Freeland’s departure was reportedly due to policy disagreements, including Trudeau’s handling of potential US tariffs and his economic strategy.
“Like most families, sometimes we have fights during the holidays,” Trudeau said in December. “But of course, like most families, we find our way through it. You know, I love this country, I love this party deeply, I love you guys , and love is family.”
Freeland, who criticized Trudeau and his “expensive political gimmicks” in his resignation letter, did not share that sentiment. Following Freeland’s resignation, Trudeau largely disappeared from media briefings or public events while spending most of his time at a ski resort.
Apart from internal turmoil, the Liberal Party suffered defeat in two recent by-elections.
Key allies such as New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh have said they will table a motion in the Canadian Parliament to bring down the government. Currently on winter recess, the Canadian Parliament will resume its proceedings on January 27.
leadership scenario
If Trudeau resigns, the Liberal Party’s main challenge will be finding a leader with mass appeal. In Canada, an interim leader cannot run for permanent leadership of a party. Names such as Dominique Leblanc, Mélanie Jolie, Francois-Philippe Champagne and Mark Carney have emerged as potential contenders, but the timescales for the leadership race could leave the party vulnerable in the lead up to federal elections later this year.
The leader of the Liberals of Canada is chosen through a special convention, a process that can take several months. If an election was called before the Liberals had a permanent leader, the party would face risk at the ballot box.
Trudeau’s political troubles come to the fore as the opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, enjoys a strong lead in opinion polls. Poilievre has taken advantage of economic frustrations, vowing to repeal Trudeau’s carbon tax and address Canada’s housing crisis. Some polls show the Conservatives having a double-digit lead over the Liberals.
Trudeau’s India Gambit
Tension has been rising between New Delhi and Ottawa after Trudeau alleged Indian involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in September 2023. Nijjar was shot outside a Sikh temple in Canada. India rejected the allegation as “absurd”. Trudeau’s claim that India sponsors criminal activities has drawn sharp criticism domestically and internationally.
In the fallout, India expelled six Canadian diplomats and recalled its envoy to Ottawa after Canada attempted to interrogate Indian officials as “persons of interest” in the Nijjar case. Pro-Khalistan activities in Canada, including an attack on a Hindu temple near Toronto, have further strained relations between the two countries.
India has consistently rejected any link to the killing of Nijjar, a terrorist named by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), and has accused Trudeau’s administration of promoting Khalistani supporters for political gains.
Despite several exchanges, including meetings at international forums such as the G20 summit, Canada has failed to provide any conclusive evidence linking India to the murder.
Critics argue that these allegations are an attempt to attract a section of the Khalistani Sikh vote base in Canada, a move that some believe to be politically motivated. However, this strategy appears to be backfiring, with many Canadians seeing it as a distraction from important national issues.
