World leaders are set to gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, as it hosts the 29th UN climate summit, COP29 (Conference of the Parties) from November 11 to 22. The main agenda ahead of the Baku Climate Summit is to increase the scale of climate finance for developing countries. It is also being called the ‘Climate Finance COP’, as its main goal is to decide how much money should be allocated each year to help developing countries deal with climate-related costs.
The summit comes at a critical moment, as the world continues its multilateral efforts to tackle climate change. Since its first meeting in Berlin, Germany in 1995, the goal of the COP has been to limit global warming to below 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels to avoid catastrophic damage to the planet. Sadly, the world continues to ignore this limitation. It is expected that countries will explore more drastic methods of emissions reduction.
The talks are expected to be particularly challenging due to the leadership change in the US. President-elect Donald Trump has a poor track record on climate action, having pushed for fossil fuel expansion during his first term and abandoning the Paris Agreement. He has promised to continue these policies during his election campaign. Let’s check out the key topics that COP29 is going to discuss at the Baku summit.
meeting financial goals
NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal) is the main deliverable this year. This refers to the new annual climate financing target, intended to replace the current $100 billion pledge made in 2009, which is set to expire at the end of this year. This money was provided by rich countries to support climate initiatives in poor countries.
The US and other developed countries want to expand the contributor base, but developing countries say this is outside the scope of the NCQG. Other issues include determining which countries should receive financial assistance – should it go to all developing countries, or only the most vulnerable – and what form that assistance should take. Developing countries are keen to avoid debt financing, as this exposes them to further climate risks.
At Egypt’s COP27, rich countries agreed to help poorer countries by bearing the costs of climate-induced disasters such as extreme floods, storms or droughts. Nearly $660 million has been raised for a newly created fund to respond to Philippines-based loss and damage. Climate-sensitive countries are expecting more contributions to this fund from rich countries. “With discussions on the NCQG still being debated over who should receive funding, how much and in what form – with hardly any progress made in the lead-up to COP29 – reaching an agreement will become a real difficult task. Hopefully, no new funds will be established at this COP, and instead the discussion will focus on mobilizing agreed funds,” says Santosh Jayaram, assistant professor of practice at Amrita School for Sustainable Futures, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham.
The level of climate finance will directly influence the ambition reflected in the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) that countries are expected to submit early next year, especially for developing countries. Developing countries are reluctant to commit to more ambitious targets without receiving explicit financial support through the NCQG. “At COP28 in Dubai, it was clear that the world had deviated from the goals set in Paris. The objective of COP29 is to secure the necessary finance so that at COP30, negotiations can move forward with a new set of NDCs in line with the agreements,” says Jayaram.
Reducing emissions and increasing green energy
As the host country, Azerbaijan has pledged several commitments to investment in renewable energy, including the Global Energy Storage and Grid Pledge which aims to increase energy infrastructure and storage capacities around the world. The country has also made an ambitious hydrogen announcement and an announcement on reducing methane emissions from organic waste. Another initiative, the Green Digital Action Declaration, aims to reduce emissions in the information and communications sectors.
However, the agenda makes no direct reference to moving away from fossil fuels, which was a major issue at COP28 in Dubai last year. The weakening of the agenda on fossil fuels is a cause for concern, especially given Azerbaijan’s vast oil resources. Other countries, including the US, Namibia and Guyana, have also approved new fields for oil and gas production.
It is the second time that Azerbaijan, a major oil producing country where the world’s first oil fields were developed, is hosting the summit and discussing a future without fossil fuels. Last year, Dubai’s COP28 presidency saw another major petrostate host one of the world’s largest climate conferences. COP29 is also expected to draw up rules for international carbon trading, an issue that has been stalled for years. This would allow countries to trade carbon credits to meet their national climate targets. The business community will seek the establishment of rules that guarantee transparency and environmental integrity in projects registered under the PACM (Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism).
Result of Trump’s victory
Trump has been openly critical of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which has supported the Biden administration’s energy policies through tax incentives and investments in renewable energy. A second Trump presidency would likely signal a shift in US energy policy, prioritizing fossil fuels over renewables.
The re-election of Trump, who has previously dismissed climate change as a ‘hoax’, is unlikely to be good news for the COP. During his campaign, Trump announced that he could rescind all mitigation measures taken by the US under President Joe Biden after rejoining the Paris Agreement in 2021. The US exit from the 2015 agreement would be a major blow to global efforts to reach net-zero emissions. By 2050.
Trump has also been vocal about climate finance, calling it a ‘one-way deal’ in which developed countries bear the costs while countries like China contribute very little. The fear of the US – the world’s second-largest emitter – withdrawing from global climate efforts is a real concern. As the world continues to suffer from the devastating effects of climate change, the United States must reconsider its stance and take a leadership role on climate and environmental issues.
(The author is a contributing editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
