The death of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on Thursday, October 17, is a significant moment in the Israel-Hamas war that has been ongoing since October 7 last year.
Sinwar, a senior Hamas member, took over leadership after the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this year. Committed to the destruction of Israel, he masterminded the brutal Hamas attacks in October last year that left more than 1,200 Israelis dead, while more than 200 were taken hostage by Hamas. Since then, Israeli reprisals have killed approximately 42,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Meanwhile, Iran’s proxy and ally on Israel’s northern borders, Hezbollah, began launching rocket attacks on Israel. In retaliation, since October 1 this year, Israel has engaged in full-scale military operations in southern Lebanon and Beirut in an effort to create a buffer zone between Lebanon and Lebanon free of Hezbollah’s presence.
Following Sinwar’s death, US President Joe Biden and European leaders have renewed calls for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Biden said Sinwar’s death was “an opportunity to find a path to peace” in Gaza.
Two aspects of Sinwar’s death
However, a ceasefire has proven elusive following Israel’s actions in Gaza. Only a few “humanitarian interruptions” have made it possible for aid to reach the besieged people in Gaza. Israel has opposed all calls for a ceasefire, alleging that any such move would be exploited by Hamas to regroup and unify. Shortly after Sinwar’s death, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, wrote on Twitter: “Yesterday at the UN Security Council, many people asked why we are still in Gaza, a year after the atrocities of October 7. Today they got the answer. No terrorist is immune from the IDF’s long arm. We will not stop until we bring all our hostages home and destroy the Hamas monsters.
There are two aspects to Sinwar’s death. On the one hand, defense experts have pointed out that in the photographs of the last moments of Sinwar’s death, he is seen sitting alone in a room above the ground. The scene points to significant damage caused by the IDF to several underground tunnels used by Hamas. The organizations are in disarray, with the deaths of several high-profile leaders of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Especially the East has been destroyed in huge quantities. This factor alone could prompt its other members to surrender and release the more than 100 Israeli hostages still held in the Strip.
Discussions between the US, Israel, the EU and Arab states have also revolved around a plan under which a joint-Arab force would be deployed into Gaza after the war.
hostage question
Israel has reduced Gaza to rubble. Even after a year of war, with 42,000 people killed in the Strip, it has not been able to achieve one of its key objectives – the release of all hostages. While about 120 hostages have been freed due to major back-channel efforts by Qatar, Egypt and the US, many of them died in captivity, while about 100 hostages are still held by Hamas.
On the other hand, the fact is that high-profile killings like Sinwar are nothing new for Hamas. Israel has a long history of carrying out such operations, and, if anything, Hamas has only emerged stronger militarily, leading to more and more brutal attacks on Israelis. The October 7 attacks were the culmination of this history, when Hamas launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel from land, sea and air, evading all surveillance and air defense systems. Launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel by land, sea and air, carefully evading all surveillance and air defense systems. , carefully dodging all surveillance and air defense systems. Many people, including those inside Israel, have pointed out that the unprecedented destruction caused by Israel in Gaza could encourage others to join the ranks of Hamas and continue its work.
Of course, Hamas has also maintained its bravery. Sinwar’s longtime deputy Khalil al-Haya has said that Sinwar’s death “will only increase the strength and resolve of Hamas and our resistance”. Interestingly, Fatah, a staunch rival of Hamas and which along with the rest of the Palestine Liberation Organization has pledged to refrain from any violence against Israel, also officially mourned the death of “Martyr Yahya Sinwar”. A statement has been issued expressing this. Therefore, although the world would like the hostages to be released and a ceasefire to occur, whether this will actually happen is anyone’s guess.
Netanyahu’s dilemma
Let us tell you that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also not committed to any ceasefire. “The war … is not over yet. And it is difficult, and it costs us dearly,” Netanyahu said in a video statement after Sinwar’s death. He also had a message for Hamas: “Whoever lays down his arms and returns our hostages—we will allow him to live.”
Indeed, Netanyahu would hope this to happen. His war on Gaza did not get exactly the domestic support he had hoped for, with many people in his own country opposing it. As long as those held since October 7 remain captive in Gaza, it will be seen as a failure. Furthermore, the war has taken a huge toll on the Israeli people themselves, with hundreds of IDF soldiers killed and an unprecedented impact on the economy. Israel’s air and ground campaigns in Lebanon have escalated the conflict, killing more than 1,000 and displacing many Lebanese civilians. Following the death of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Iran fired missiles directly at Israel, the second time this year. Israel has vowed to take revenge. And in another symbolic escalation, the Hezbollah drone strike targeted none other than Netanyahu’s home.
Harris or Trump, US support may continue
There is now little incentive for Netanyahu’s government to agree to a ceasefire, when the IDF’s successes in Lebanon and the deaths of people like Nasrallah and Sinwar are being seen as achievements by the Israeli people after a year of protests, For which calls were also seen for the government to resign.
More importantly, with the US elections just weeks away, Netanyahu understands he will likely get a free pass. Whatever the domestic compulsions of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, overall, there is unlikely to be any major opposition to Israel’s wars. And if Donald Trump and the Republicans form the next government, they are expected to take a tough stance against Iran. Marwan al-Muasher, a former Jordanian foreign minister and now vice president of studies at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, summarized: “Netanyahu has no reason to stop his wars before the US elections.”
It seems that both Israel and Hamas, led by some apocalyptic vision unknown to us, are fighting to the end.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. She has translated the works of Nicholas Roerich from Russian to English)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
